Israeli air defenses have significantly improved since the last significant attack by ballistic missiles in 1991. Iran has also expanded and enhanced its ballistic missile arsenal, making it more sophisticated than Iraq’s during that time. The recent assassination of a senior Iranian general in Syria has heightened tensions, with Iran vowing revenge and the U.S. expecting an Iranian attack on Israel soon. Analysts believe Iran may respond directly to Israel rather than through proxies, possibly using its large arsenal of ballistic missiles.
If Iran decides to launch a direct attack on Israel, it could use longer-range ballistic missiles, with estimates indicating they could reach Israel in 12 minutes. Iranian proxies have already targeted Israel with drones and cruise missiles, so a direct attack may have a more significant impact. While Israel’s air defenses have significantly improved since the 1991 attacks, Iran’s missiles today have better accuracy, longer ranges, and larger payloads.
The United States had tried to reassure Israel during the 1991 Gulf War by deploying Patriot missiles, but they were largely ineffective against Iraqi Scuds. However, today’s Patriot systems are much more capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, as demonstrated in the Ukraine war. Israel now has the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 missile defense systems in service, along with David’s Sling and Iron Dome to intercept rockets launched from Gaza and Lebanon.
Israel’s missile strike capabilities have also significantly improved since 1991, with the Jericho-3 missile system having a range of 3,000 miles and the Israeli Navy’s Dolphin submarines capable of launching cruise missiles for a second-strike capability. If Iran attacks Israel with ballistic missiles, many may not reach their targets due to Israeli interceptors. Iran’s simulated attack on an Israeli airbase in the Iranian desert indicates potential targets for retaliation against Israeli bases hosting F-35 stealth jets.
The increasing tensions between Iran and Israel highlight the potential for a direct Iranian attack on Israel, utilizing its sophisticated ballistic missile arsenal. Israel’s advanced air defenses and missile strike capabilities provide a strong defense against such attacks, with interceptors like the Arrow systems and Iron Dome to counter incoming threats. Whether Iran decides to follow through with a direct attack remains to be seen, but it is clear that any such action would be met with a well-prepared and advanced defensive response from Israel.
