With just two months left before the European elections on June 9th, the latest polls are showing a significant lead for the Rassemblement National (RN) over the majority presidential list. The gap between the two parties remains at least ten points in all opinion polls, indicating a likely defeat for the presidential camp on election night. The campaign has not yet fully started, and the leader of the presidential camp, Valérie Hayer, is still relatively unknown compared to Jordan Bardella, the RN’s frontrunner. Bardella has been avoiding debates, especially on the topic of the Russian aggression in Ukraine, while Hayer has made a point of showing support for Ukrainians by visiting Kiev.
In an attempt to boost support for his camp, President Emmanuel Macron has been trying to make Ukraine a central issue in the campaign. As the conflict continues in Ukraine and Russia gains ground in the Donbass region, Macron is looking to prepare the French and European public for a potential increase in military support for Kiev. The situation in Ukraine is dire, and the aggressive stance of the Kremlin towards France has raised concerns. With the possibility of a return to power by Donald Trump in the US after the November presidential election, Macron is trying to alert the public to the urgency of the situation in Ukraine.
However, the strategy of focusing on Ukraine in the campaign may have unintended consequences. While it could help mobilize Macron’s supporters, it has also given some breathing room to pro-Russian parties that have been largely marginalized since the Russian invasion in February 2022. A recent debate in the National Assembly on the bilateral security agreement between France and Ukraine clarified the positions of different political parties, with a majority of deputies supporting the agreement. Macron’s supporters, along with most Republicans, socialists, and ecologists, voted in favor, while the RN abstained, and La France insoumise and the communists voted against.
As the election date approaches, the presidential camp is facing a tough challenge in narrowing the gap between their list and the RN. With the RN maintaining a strong lead in the polls, Macron’s emphasis on the situation in Ukraine as a key issue in the campaign has not yet translated into increased support for his camp. As the campaign intensifies, the outcome of the election remains uncertain, and the political landscape in France continues to be shaped by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical implications for Europe.
