The upcoming Basque regional elections, scheduled for April, are marked by the battle for hegemony within the Basque nationalist field between the PNV and EH Bildu. This unique competition is a result of the municipal and regional elections last May, as well as the general elections in July, where the left-wing Basque nationalist party was virtually tied with the traditional nationalists for the first time. However, the expectations of a political shift, seen as a change in government, are nearly discarded as the third party, PSE, has already stated they will not support EH-Bildu in forming a government, but rather the PNV. The electoral rivalry between the two Basque nationalist partners of the Sanchez government is not expected to affect the stability of the central government.
The poor performance of the PNV in the spring and summer elections led to the replacement of Iñigo Urkullu, who had been the lehendakari for three terms, by Imanol Pradales as the candidate for the upcoming Basque elections. This generational change aims to prevent the political shift that EH Bildu is striving for in the nationalist field. With Pradales, a young professional with strong ties to the business and academic world, the PNV hopes to present a modern image and halt the decline of their government, which has faced criticism for the deterioration of public services, particularly healthcare, and tensions with the ELA-STV union, as well as a loss of influence among young voters.
This move prompted EH Bildu to accelerate their own candidate selection process. EH Bildu had initially planned to have a transitional lehendakari candidate for the upcoming elections, but the generational change in the PNV pushed them to introduce Pello Otxandiano, a young promising candidate with strong roots in Basque nationalism. EH Bildu’s pragmatic approach focuses on continuing to grow and closing the gap with the PNV, as indicated by recent polls that show a potential increase in seats for EH Bildu while the PNV may see a decrease. EH Bildu aims to attract new young and non-nationalist voters and is banking on Podemos’ decline to bolster their own position.
EH Bildu has embraced the narrative put forth by the PSE that they will not be part of the Basque government, citing ethical concerns and the need for further political evolution within the party. The PSE, which has been a key player in the Basque government for the past 10 years, believes that their role as a facilitator of a central political axis in the Basque Country is still relevant. The possibility of a new government coalition with the PNV and PSE after the upcoming elections is not ruled out, as both parties see value in continuing their partnership despite the electoral rivalry with EH Bildu. The upcoming elections will also provide insights into the impact of generational change among the candidates for lehendakari across all parties.
While a change in government and political cycle is not the most likely scenario, the upcoming Basque elections will shed light on the evolving political landscape and trends that emerged in the previous elections. The standout candidates and their respective parties are gearing up for a competitive campaign, with the potential for some surprises along the way. The outcome of these elections will also be crucial in determining the future direction of Basque politics and the balance of power within the nationalist field.
