In the midst of the chaos and turmoil that muddy Spanish politics, the campaign for the Basque elections kicks off as an oasis of sanity. There are no Ayusos, Puigdemonts, or Sanxe dogs here. Instead, there are new, somewhat bland candidates who focus on management and avoid the identity debate in a Basque Country where only 13% of the population demands independence, according to a survey by 40dB for EL PAÍS and SER. The main contender, Bildu, which would typically focus on promoting change and launching attacks, believes their supporters are already mobilized and wants to avoid getting dragged into the mud. It is the PNV that needs to activate the undecided and unmotivated voters. However, the hyperbole is not the territory chosen by post-Ibarretxe and post-procés Basque nationalism. Even though Arnaldo Otegi predicted that there will undoubtedly be a coalition government between PNV and PSE after the elections on April 21, these are the first Basque elections in a long time where the outcome is uncertain.
Bizkaia, the most populous of the Basque provinces, is focused on something else entirely. The Athletic Bilbao football club is on the verge of winning their first major title in 40 years, playing against Mallorca in the Copa del Rey final in Seville. The excitement and passion surrounding the game have overtaken the typically cerebral campaign atmosphere. No party dares to schedule a major event this weekend in Bizkaia, not only because around 70,000 fans have traveled to Seville, but also because if Athletic wins, the celebrations will last at least until Thursday when the players sail down the river on the iconic gabarra boat. Bizkaia is consumed by Athletic fever, with campaign news relegated to the sidelines in local newspapers and red and white flags adorning balconies across the region.
In the midst of the Athletic frenzy, the political candidates find it challenging to capture the attention of the public, both before and after the game. However, there is intriguing scientific literature on the potential impact of an Athletic victory on the elections. A study by the US National Academy of Sciences in 2018 revealed that when a local team wins, voters tend to be more supportive of the ruling politicians in elections. Considering the historical association of Athletic with Basque nationalism, there is speculation that a win for Athletic may boost support for the PNV and Bildu parties. The club and PNV were both founded in Bizkaia around the same time, and there are connections between the Athletic ethos of only having players from the Basque territories and the boundaries of Basque nationalism.
The identification of Athletic with Basque nationalism has its complexities, especially considering the club’s ties to the Spanish national team. The myth of the founding player Jose Maria Belauste, who scored a crucial goal for the Spanish team in the 1920 Olympics, is an example of the intertwined history of Athletic with Spanish and Basque identities. Despite these nuances, the passion and unity that Athletic brings to the region cannot be underestimated. The club is considered a unifying force in Bizkaia and even in the entire Basque Country. Ultimately, the club’s influence goes beyond football, shaping the cultural and social landscape of the region. The upcoming election will reveal whether the fervor surrounding Athletic’s success will translate into political support for the Basque nationalist parties.
