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Challenges loom as the Trump administration continues to impose policy changes, travel bans, and increasing tariffs, raising concerns of a potential ‘global grounding’. The new tariffs have raised a risk of a recession, with shares of travel companies plummeting in response and leading Skift Research to lower its forecast for global travel.
These spell a period of uncertainty for the industry, as geopolitical and economic tensions take center stage.
The global Skift Travel Health Index: February 2025 stands at 99, already indicating a 1% dip in travel performance in February 2025, the first year-on-year decline since the industry recovered from the pandemic.
The global travel industry, however, has weathered difficult times and remained resilient over the past few years.
Before the recent U.S. policy changes, our data partner Skyscanner conducted a survey on 19,000 travelers across multiple geographies to understand their travel intentions in 2025, sharing the results in its recently published Spring Travel Outlook.
The travel industry has been facing geopolitical and economic uncertainties for some time now; despite this, Skyscanner’s report highlights robust travel demand in 2025, especially from emerging economies.
The report reveals that, globally, 80% of travelers are willing to take more or the same number of trips in 2025 as they did in 2024. Only about 9% said that they will be traveling less.
Travelers from India, the UAE, and Brazil in particular indicate a strong intention to travel and a willingness to spend more on flights, accommodations, and luxury travel experiences. On the other hand, large economies such as Europe and North America show a more conservative outlook, indicating they plan to travel only as much as last year.
However, the optimism in travel demand may be tested by shifting U.S. policies. The ongoing discussions around tariffs, travel bans, and immigration policy changes pose a risk to the global travel industry. Travel industry experts have expressed concerns about the “chilling effect” such policies could have on both inbound and outbound tourism from the U.S.
Although the impact on travel is still unfolding, travel intent, especially from emerging economies, indicates optimism for the industry.
The Skift Travel Health Index is a real-time measure of the performance of the travel industry at large, and the core verticals within it, which provides the travel industry with a powerful tool for strategic planning. We have been tracking travel for 22 of the largest global economies since 2020, with consistent monthly data inputs across 88 indicators that are aggregated to cover categories such as aviation, hotels, short-term rentals, and car rentals.
Read The February 2025 Highlights for more insights and the Travel Health Index dashboard to visualize the data.
Is Travel Resilient Enough to Withstand U.S. Policy Shifts?
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