Senate primaries are starting to heat up, but the key matchups that will determine the balance of power in the chamber are already taking shape seven months before the November election. The top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising figures, and historical data. Only Ohio and Texas have had primaries so far, while nominating contests between April and August will solidify the other races.
The top three races most likely to flip are in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, as they are Democratic-held seats in states that supported Donald Trump. The presidential race has also settled into a general election tempo, with both Trump and President Joe Biden securing enough delegates to become their parties’ presumptive nominees. The changes in the Senate rankings mainly involve presidential battleground states that could see close races this year.
Pennsylvania drops down to No. 6 on the list, with Nevada moving up two spots. Michigan moves above Wisconsin, despite Biden carrying Michigan by a stronger margin in 2020. The Senate map favors the GOP, but Democrats believe their candidates are positioned to overperform Biden, especially with general election contrasts emerging.
Maryland makes its debut on the rankings, with former Gov. Larry Hogan entering the race and making it competitive. Florida falls off the list, giving Republicans a win this month. West Virginia remains at the top of the list, as even if Sen. Joe Manchin were to run as an independent, it would be difficult for him to win in a state that strongly supports Trump.
In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen faces a tough reelection battle, while Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio is also vulnerable. In Pennsylvania, Democrat Bob Casey faces a close race against Republican Dave McCormick. Michigan is a key battleground with a sizable Arab and Muslim American population, where Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads the race to succeed retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow. In Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin faces a challenge from Republican Eric Hovde, who is trying to prove his Wisconsin roots despite past ties to California.
