At the end of the last century, the expression “Basque decision-making sphere” was coined when Basque nationalists sought to claim exclusive authority over the future of the Basque Country. It was a flag that was waved, with a plethora of political speeches and headlines, as a sovereignty aspiration that ultimately amounted to nothing. Nearly three decades later, the true Basque decision-making sphere will come on April 21st, when 1.8 million citizens of this autonomous community will open the ballot boxes and cast their votes. They will decide, for the 13th time since the restoration of democracy, the composition of the new Parliament which will elect the sixth lehendakari since 1980. An uncertain and open prediction has never been seen before in the Basque Country. The PNV and EH Bildu come to this election more evenly matched than ever.
The April 21st election has been described as historic. And it would indeed be historic if for the first time the PNV does not win an election in its home and is surpassed by EH Bildu, its eternal rival. The possibility of a political change in cycle is becoming increasingly apparent in most of the polls published and has penetrated the electorate. These two parties enter the campaign, starting at midnight on Thursday, with the forces more evenly matched than ever before. Political supremacy and leadership in the nationalist field are at stake just over two weeks before the vote. The trends are pointing in the same direction. The recent electoral processes, the municipal and general elections in mid-2023, show that the differences are narrow, a result of the loss of confidence that the PNV is experiencing and the push shown by the abertzale left since the end of ETA’s armed struggle.
The battle between the two major nationalist parties has been palpable from the start. Otxandiano and Pradales have coincided in Vitoria at the beginning of the electoral race and have realized that they represent divergent models. The former has reaffirmed his commitment to lead “the wave of change that is coming with strength” and proposes a “political regeneration” in the Basque Country that involves “rebuilding [the Basque health service] Osakidetza”, “solving the housing problem” and “halting the decline of public services” after the 12 years in power of the PNV. On the other hand, the aspirant of this party, supported by lehendakari Urkullu, has positioned its initials as a guarantee of “welfare and quality of life”, against the “empty and laboratory speeches” of EH Bildu. The Basque electoral scenario is as novel as it is unpredictable, everything is played out in a new setting where image matters a lot.
In Bildu, they claim that a new era is looming in the Basque Country (“Decide the change” is their motto) and are convinced that they will be the top force, according to the Otxandiano team. The PNV obtained 31 seats in the 2020 regional elections, ten more than their nationalist adversary (winning 39% of the votes, versus 28% for EH Bildu), but current polls reduce that difference to a minimum, not ruling out a technical tie or even being surpassed. The day after April 21st might see EH Bildu take the helm, unless there is a major electoral turnaround. The Socialist Party of the Basque Country is expected to once again be the third force (possibly increasing from 10 to 11 seats) and the party that will decide the new Basque government. Their candidate Andueza has ruled out any possibility of facilitating the investiture of a Bildu lehendakari with PSE-EE votes.
The pre-election campaign has confirmed that independence is not a priority. The main parties have focused on socio-economic issues rather than identity-related ones in their speeches. The deterioration of the public health system after the pandemic, poor results in the PISA Report for the education system, the increase in strikes and labor conflicts have been influencing the political discussion. The path to independence, a concern that is losing weight among Basques, is still advocated by both the PNV and EH Bildu but put on hold for an indefinite future. The Basque PP is also renewing itself by bringing back Javier de Andrés, a close ally of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who aims to offer a moderate image while criticizing President Sánchez for allegedly “whitewashing Bildu”.
The division within the confederal left, which in the Basque Country (like in Galicia) will run separately with Podemos and Sumar, could condemn these forces to irrelevance, with the risk of both disappearing from the parliamentary landscape. The key will be the ability to mobilize non-voters from the 2020 election, which saw historically low turnout, and attract undecided voters. The PNV has explicitly called on its members and supporters to go out and convince undecided voters to vote for the party. The election on April 21st will ultimately determine the future political landscape of the Basque Country.
