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Even if the joint parliamentary committee finds a compromise, there is no guarantee the budget bill will be adopted by the lower house next week.
Seven MPs and seven senators have met behind closed doors on Thursday in Paris to negotiate the final draft of France’s 2025 budget plan. But even if they succeed, the plan’s adoption by Parliament cannot be taken for granted. The outcome of the talks promises to be decisive for the future of newly appointed Prime Minister François Bayrou and his government. Who is part of the negotiations and what is at stake?The parliamentary committee has eight representatives from the presidential camp, while the the left only has four — far from the majority — but enough to tip the balance if they decide to vote against the bill next week. The far-right National Rally (RN) party is represented by two elected officials. Prime Minister François Bayrou is aiming for an eye-watering €32bn in budget cuts to reduce the country’s skyrocketing public deficit estimated at 5.3% of GDP in 2025. In 2024, the country’s public deficit was roughly 6.1% of its GDP. France is under pressure for overspending as the EU’s fiscal rules require each member state to keep its deficit below 3% of the GDP. During these talks, all eyes are on the Socialist Party (PS) as tensions remain high between all parties. Its representatives have threatened to activate the no-confidence motion if they do not obtain additional concessions. In a last-ditch effort to appeal to the left, François Bayrou agreed to not axe 4,000 jobs in the public education sector. However, the talks turned sour on Monday after Bayrou told LCI, a French broadcaster, that some French people felt “submerged” by immigrants. The comment caused outrage among the Socialists who briefly suspended negotiations on Tuesday. Article 49.3 looming again?Next week, the bill heads to the lower house where it could trigger a possible no-confidence vote. One thing seems sure: the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party will vote against the bill. The big question remains on who else will follow.Bayrou’s government is counting on the abstention of the Socialists, and possibly the far-right to have the bill adopted. But given the tensions between the different political groups, nothing is guaranteed.The most likely outcome is that the parliamentary committee reaches an agreement, which would open the door to a vote on the budget as early as Monday in the lower house. If the far-right and the left voted against the bill, Bayrou could use the controversial Article 49.3 of the constitution to pass the budget without a vote from MPs. However, this would open the government to a another no-confidence vote. In December 2024, ex-Prime Minister Michel Barnier was toppled by the left and far right after he attempted to ram the social security budget through using this institutional power. France has been stuck in a political deadlock after President Emmanuel Macron abruptly dissolved the lower house following his party’s loss in the European elections in June 2024. This state of political paralysis could remain unresolved until June, when Macron can constitutionally call for new elections.
