Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, issued a warning that the window for a diplomatic solution to halt Iran’s nuclear development is beginning to shrink. He urged the Iranian administration to understand the increasing tension in the international situation and the narrowing margins for maneuver, emphasizing the importance of finding diplomatic solutions. Grossi traveled to Tehran for high-level meetings with Iranian government officials to discuss technical aspects related to Iran’s agreement under a Joint Statement to adhere to IAEA safeguard parameters. He stressed the need for substantive progress in implementing the Joint Statement.
The concerns over Iran’s nuclear program have been heightened since the U.S. withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, despite IAEA assurances that Iran was not in violation of its nuclear agreements. Grossi is expected to push Iran for increased access to its nuclear sites and an explanation for traces of uranium found at undeclared sites. Iran has increased its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium metals to 60% purity levels, just below weapons-grade uranium enriched to 90% purity. Grossi’s visit to Tehran comes at a critical time, with President-elect Trump expected to take a hardline approach towards Tehran upon his return to the Oval Office.
President Trump maintained that the JCPOA was a terrible deal and unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the agreement. Despite the U.S. withdrawal, other international co-signatories, including Russia, urged Tehran to continue to adhere to the JCPOA. However, tensions increased as Moscow dropped its diplomatic encouragement due to escalating tensions with the West over its invasion of Ukraine. Grossi referred to the JCPOA as an empty shell, signaling the need for a new approach to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions using methods of nuclear deterrence instead of focusing on restoring a nuclear deal.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert, suggested that moving past the Biden administration’s ambitions to restore a nuclear deal and relying on Cold War-era tactics of nuclear deterrence may be the key to preventing Iran from pursuing its nuclear ambitions. He emphasized the irreversible and knowledge-based nuclear gains Tehran made under the Biden administration’s policy of maximum deference, which have shut the window for meaningful engagement with Tehran. Despite the tense geopolitical framework with the West’s unification against Russia and Iran, Grossi expressed confidence in working with another Trump administration, citing their previous successful collaboration.
Grossi highlighted the urgency of addressing Iran’s nuclear program and the need for diplomatic solutions to prevent further escalation. He stressed the importance of substantive progress in implementing agreements with Iran and increasing access to nuclear sites for inspection. Given the increasing tensions in the international situation, Grossi’s warnings underscore the significance of finding ways to reach diplomatic solutions to halt Iran’s nuclear development. With the geopolitical landscape shifting and a new administration set to take office in the U.S., the future of diplomatic efforts to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions remains uncertain.
