The Ukraine Business Roundup newsletter for Nov. 12, 2024, highlights the uncertainty surrounding the future of U.S. financial and military aid to Kyiv with Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House. Trump has expressed intentions to end the war with Russia and has criticized aid to Ukraine. With Ukraine relying heavily on this aid to sustain its economy and defense, the potential consequences of Trump’s policies remain a concern for the country’s survival. Ukraine’s government is facing a significant budget deficit, with a large portion needing to be sourced from loans from G7 countries.
As President Joe Biden’s term comes to an end, Ukraine’s allies are urging him to provide crucial aid to Kyiv. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is pressuring Biden to release $20 billion in funds agreed upon by G7 leaders, partially funded by interest earned on Russian assets seized at the beginning of the invasion. However, the decision on seizing the $300 billion in immobilized Russian Central Bank assets is still pending. Biden’s administration is seeking approval from Congress for additional aid and plans to ramp up military assistance to Ukraine in the coming months, aiming to secure his legacy of supporting Ukraine.
The newsletter also reports on Ukraine’s plans to reopen one of its airports by the end of January 2025, nearly three years after all airports were closed at the start of the conflict. The selection of the first airport to reopen, whether Lviv or Kyiv’s Boryspil, depends on various factors such as security and air defenses. The country has already delivered one million drones to the front lines, primarily of Ukrainian origin, which have proven to be crucial assets in the ongoing war, disrupting enemy vehicles and infantry. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund is conducting an assessment in Kyiv to potentially disburse another $1.1 billion tranche from a $15 billion loan program.
A new addition to Ukraine’s defense capabilities is the release of the fourth installment of the Metro video game series, set in Russia’s underground subway and developed in virtual reality. Despite disruptions caused by the conflict, Ukraine’s video game industry has persisted, with companies like GSC Game World continuing their operations. The government has allocated significant funds for weapons production in its 2025 budget. Emergency blackouts were briefly imposed across Ukraine due to threats of attacks on critical energy infrastructure by Russia. On a positive note, American AI company Vantiq has donated AI software worth $500,000 to develop smart cities in Ukraine, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and urban development.
Notably, there is no current deal in place between Europe and Azerbaijan to maintain gas transit through Ukraine once the existing agreement with Russia expires. The International Chamber of Commerce has announced a reduction in arbitration costs for foreign investors involved in Ukraine’s reconstruction projects, to encourage much-needed investment in the country. Overall, the Ukraine Business Roundup newsletter outlines the ongoing challenges and developments in Ukraine’s economy, defense efforts, and partnerships with international stakeholders as the country navigates the impact of the conflict and seeks avenues for growth and resilience.
