Republican David McCormick emerged victorious in the Pennsylvania Senate race, defeating Democratic incumbent Bob Casey. McCormick was able to cut into Casey’s support in Philadelphia and its suburbs while also building leads in more GOP-leaning parts of the state. Despite Casey initially leading in early returns, McCormick overtook him with about 80% of the estimated votes counted. McCormick’s success in areas like the Poconos, central Pennsylvania, and Western Pennsylvania solidified his victory.
President Joe Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2020, but Casey is underperforming compared to Biden by significant margins in almost every large county in the state. In counties like Philadelphia, Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, and Chester, Casey is doing 3 percentage points worse than Biden did in 2020. McCormick’s strong performance in votes cast on Election Day played a crucial role in his victory, with his lead growing as more Republican-leaning areas reported their results.
The race between Casey and McCormick was characterized by sharp exchanges, with both candidates trading accusations. McCormick accused Casey of being weak and a career politician, while Casey labeled McCormick as a wealthy, carpetbagging ex-hedge fund CEO. Pennsylvania Democrats have had recent success in Senate and governor races, with Fetterman and Shapiro emerging victorious in 2022.
McCormick’s ability to win in regions across the state, except for Philadelphia and its suburbs where he still cut into Casey’s margins, ultimately sealed his victory. Despite there being an estimated 100,000 outstanding ballots, Casey would not have been able to make up the difference even if he won a majority of them. The AP called the race in favor of McCormick based on the data and projections available at the time.
This victory for McCormick marks a significant shift in Pennsylvania politics and adds another Republican to the state’s representation in the Senate. The race highlighted the changing demographics and political dynamics in the state, with McCormick’s success in diverse regions contributing to his win. McCormick’s background as a West Point graduate, Army veteran, and former investment firm CEO resonated with voters across the state, propelling him to victory.
