Early exit polling data from CNN indicates that two-thirds of Arizonans are unhappy with the state of the US economy, which could be a concerning sign for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. The economy was identified as the most important issue for 31 percent of those polled, with 41 percent viewing it as poor and 25 percent seeing it as “not so good.” Additionally, immigration and abortion were key topics for Arizona voters, with most supporting legal abortion and providing legal status to undocumented migrants.
With Arizona sharing a significant border with Mexico, President Donald Trump has strongly emphasized Harris’ role in border security as part of the Biden-Harris administration. While polling suggested nationwide support for stricter immigration policies, CNN’s exit poll showed that democracy was actually the primary concern among Arizonans at 35 percent, followed closely by the economy at 31 percent. The state’s position in the sunbelt, along with Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election.
If Harris can maintain Arizona as a blue state, it would relieve pressure on other sunbelt states that may lean towards voting for Trump. This would potentially lead to a larger victory if Harris can also secure key states in the rust belt like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, the CNN survey showed that older voters were more likely to support Trump, with Harris receiving more support from younger voters.
There was a clear divide between Democrats and Republicans on the issues of immigration and abortion. Harris supporters overwhelmingly favored granting legal status to undocumented migrants, while Trump supporters leaned towards deportation. Similarly, regarding abortion, there was a significant gap in opinions, with Harris supporters mostly in favor of legal abortion, while Trump voters believed it should be illegal. Despite most voters expressing confidence in the fairness and accuracy of Arizona’s elections, a majority also felt that democracy was currently threatened.
In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden narrowly won Arizona by just 10,000 votes, securing 11 Electoral College votes for the Democrats. As Arizona continues to play a pivotal role in national elections, the state’s sentiment towards the economy, immigration, and other key issues will be important factors in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential race between Harris and Trump.
