Nevada is once again a key battleground state in the upcoming presidential election, with both Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump campaigning in the state. The state has six electoral votes and has a strong track record of predicting the winner of presidential elections. In the race for the U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen is seeking re-election against Republican Sam Brown, among others. There are also high-profile ballot measures on abortion rights, voter identification, and ranked-choice voting that will be decided by Nevada voters.
The outcome of the presidential election in Nevada is crucial, as the state has historically been a reliable bellwether for predicting the winner of the White House. Democrats have won Nevada in the last four presidential elections, with the exception of 2016 when Hillary Clinton carried the state. In addition to the presidential race, voters will also decide on key ballot measures that could impact future elections and government policies. The state’s strong Democratic presence in Clark County, home to Las Vegas, and Washoe County, home to Reno, plays a significant role in determining election outcomes.
Nevada conducts its elections primarily by mail, with about 80% of voters casting their ballots in-person before Election Day in recent elections. Mail-in ballots that are postmarked by Election Day will be counted if received by November 9th, four days after Election Day. Despite challenges from state Republicans, a federal court dismissed attempts to change the mail-in ballot counting process. The state does not release any vote results until the final voter in line has cast a ballot, potentially delaying the outcome of some highly competitive races.
In the 2022 midterm elections, Republican candidates initially took an early lead in the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, but the outcomes shifted as more mail-in ballots were tallied. Democratic U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto ultimately overtook her Republican opponent, while Republican Joe Lombardo maintained his lead in the gubernatorial race against Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak. The Associated Press does not make projections and will only declare a winner when all scenarios have been considered.
Registered voters in Nevada total 2.4 million, with Democrats making up about 30% and Republicans 28% of the voter registration. Voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election was 68% of registered voters, with most votes cast before Election Day. Nevada’s election laws do not have an automatic recount provision, but candidates can request and pay for a recount within three days of the election results. The AP may declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if the lead is determined to be too significant for a recount to change the outcome.
As Election Day approaches on November 5th, Nevada remains a critical state for both presidential and down-ballot races. With recent changes to mail-in voting processes and key ballot measures on the agenda, Nevada voters will have a significant impact on national and state politics. The state’s role as a presidential bellwether, combined with its diverse electorate and large population centers, makes it a focal point for both Democrats and Republicans in the upcoming election.
