Pennsylvania is set to play a crucial role in the upcoming Nov. 5 general election, with control of the White House, both chambers of Congress, and the state Legislature hanging in the balance. Both Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump have been actively campaigning in the state, recognizing its importance as the largest prize among the battleground states. Pennsylvania had narrowly voted for Trump in 2016 after decades of Democratic dominance, but swung back to the Democrats in 2020 with Joe Biden winning the state by a slim margin.
In the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey is seeking a fourth term against Republican Dave McCormick. This race is critical for the Democrats in maintaining control of the closely divided Senate. McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and Army combat veteran, is providing Casey with a tough challenge. The outcome of this race will have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate.
Several competitive races for the U.S. House are also taking place in Pennsylvania. In the 7th Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wild is facing off against Republican Ryan Mackenzie, while in the neighboring 8th Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright is running for a seventh term against Republican Robert Bresnahan. These races will play a key role in determining control of the U.S. House.
The state Legislature is also up for grabs, with Democrats defending their razor-thin majority in the state House that they won in 2022 for the first time in 12 years. All 203 state House seats and half of the 50 state Senate seats are up for election this year. Republicans currently hold a majority in the state Senate, adding further significance to the outcome of these races.
Pennsylvania has a history of slow vote counting due to laws that require ballots to be processed only on Election Day. Mail-in ballots, which tend to favor Democrats, play a significant role in the vote count and could potentially lead to an early lead for the Democratic candidate followed by a tightening race. The suburban areas around Philadelphia and other key battlegrounds in the state will be closely watched on election night, along with counties that flipped from Trump to Biden in 2020.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it is certain that the trailing candidate cannot close the gap. Races with a margin of 0.5 percentage points or less are subject to an automatic recount in Pennsylvania. The voter turnout in the state is high, with a significant percentage of votes cast before Election Day. Overall, Pennsylvania is shaping up to be a critical battleground in the 2024 election, with the outcome potentially having far-reaching consequences for the political landscape of the state and the country.
