With only 14 days until the election, voter registration has closed in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state where polls are incredibly close. Over 9 million people are registered to vote in the upcoming November 5 election, just shy of the 9,090,962 registered for the 2020 general election. While registration closed on Monday, voters still have until October 29 to request a mail-in ballot. So far, over 1.8 million mail-in ballots have been requested in Pennsylvania. Current polls show Republican nominee Donald Trump with a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, with a margin of 0.3 points. FiveThirtyEight forecasts a Trump victory in the state, while other polls show a tie or slight lead for Harris.
Recent polls in Pennsylvania show Trump either leading or tied with Harris. An AtlasIntel poll conducted between October 12 and 17 showed Trump with a 3-point lead, outside of the margin of error. Other polls, including those by the Trafalgar Group, Quantus Insights, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies, show Trump’s lead within the margin of error. Despite this, other polls by the Bullfinch Group, Morning Consult, and the New York Times and Siena College show Harris leading by a few points. Pennsylvania is considered crucial in securing victory with its 19 electoral votes, as it has voted with the overall winner in 48 out of the last 59 elections. Without Pennsylvania, it is unlikely that Harris will beat Trump, who is predicted to win in key battleground states according to forecasts.
FiveThirtyEight predicts that Harris will win in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Nebraska’s 2nd district, gaining her 31 electoral votes. On the other hand, Trump is predicted to win in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, giving him 62 electoral votes from toss-up states. RealClearPolitics forecasts that Trump will win all battleground states, resulting in 312 electoral votes compared to Harris’ 226. However, the race remains a toss-up according to Nate Silver, as the election is described as “extremely close.” Harris currently leads Trump nationally by 1.8 points, with Silver’s tracker showing her up by 1.6 points. Despite this, Silver’s forecast gives Trump a 52.7 percent chance of winning compared to Harris’ 47 percent, indicating a tight race nearing the election.
With the deadline for voter registration closing in Pennsylvania, the focus is now on the November 5 election as polls suggest a tight race. Trump and Harris are currently neck and neck in the state, with Trump holding a slight lead in the most recent polls. The electoral votes in Pennsylvania are crucial for securing victory in November, as the state has historically voted for the overall winner in most elections. Harris needs to secure 44 electoral votes from toss-up states while Trump requires 51, underscoring the importance of Pennsylvania in the outcome of the election. As the election approaches, both campaigns are expected to intensify their efforts in Pennsylvania to secure a victory in this key battleground state.
Overall, the current status of the election in Pennsylvania is showing a slight lead for Trump over Harris, with polls predicting different outcomes. While Trump has a narrow edge in some polls, Harris leads in others, making the race unpredictable. The state’s 19 electoral votes play a crucial role in determining the overall winner in November. With the election nearing, both campaigns are focusing on Pennsylvania as a must-win state to secure victory. As the battle intensifies in the remaining days before the election, the outcome in Pennsylvania is anticipated to have a significant impact on the overall results.
