The upcoming Basque elections on April 21 are expected to result in a close race between the PNV and EH Bildu, with the latest polls predicting a narrow victory for the PNV. The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) gives the PNV a slight lead with 36.1% of the vote compared to EH Bildu’s 33%. The two nationalist parties are projected to hold a majority in the regional parliament, similar to the previous election in 2020. The PNV could secure around 30-31 seats, maintaining its current position, while EH Bildu is expected to gain 28-29 seats, an increase from the previous election.
The socialist party in the Basque Country, led by Eneko Andueza, is projected to maintain its electoral weight with 13.1% of the vote and around 10-11 seats. This would ensure the possibility of a coalition government between the PNV and the socialists. The PP, the fourth largest party, is expected to maintain its position with around 7.7% of the vote and 5-6 seats. However, the left-wing parties Elkarrekin Podemos and Sumar might suffer significant losses as they are running separately. Podemos is expected to receive only 2.5% of the vote and potentially no seats, while Sumar could get 3.7% and up to two seats. Vox, which currently holds one seat, may also struggle to retain its position.
The CIS poll shows a slight advantage for the PNV compared to a previous poll conducted by 40dB, which had both nationalist parties tied with 28 seats each. The survey interviewed nearly 5,000 people in 207 Basque municipalities, with EH Bildu’s candidate Otxandiano scoring higher in terms of popularity compared to the PNV’s Pradales. However, Pradales is favored to become the next lehendakari with 30.4% of the support. The top concerns among respondents are healthcare, unemployment, and political issues, with 71% prioritizing the political party over the candidate in their voting decision.
The survey also reveals the complex identity dynamics in the Basque Country, with 40% feeling equally Basque and Spanish, while others identify more strongly as one or the other. The majority of respondents state their voting decision was made well before the campaign period, with only a small percentage waiting until the last week to decide. The outcome of the upcoming election will have significant implications for the regional government and the balance of power between nationalist and socialist parties in the Basque Country.
