Nate Silver’s latest election forecast indicates that former President Donald Trump has gained ground in key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, although Vice President Kamala Harris remains the favorite to win in November. Positive polls in September showed Trump leading among likely voters in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, suggesting that these states could potentially tip the election results. However, Harris still leads on average in both battleground states, with a gap between state polling and her overall lead across national polls. Silver’s model gives Harris a 55.1 percent chance of victory in November, compared to Trump’s 44.7 percent chance of winning a second term.
In Pennsylvania, a poll conducted by AtlasIntel found Trump leading by 2.9 percentage points among likely voters, while a survey by Trafalgar Group showed him ahead by 2 points. In Michigan, another poll by AtlasIntel showed Trump leading by 3.4 percentage points. Overall, Silver’s forecast on Monday showed that Trump had improved by 0.7 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 0.4 percentage points in Michigan over the past week. Despite these gains, Harris maintains a slight lead in both states, with a 1.2-point lead in Pennsylvania and a 1.8-point lead in Michigan.
The Electoral College continues to pose a challenge for Democrats, as reflected in the gap between state polling and national polls that favor Harris. However, Silver’s model still predicts Harris to win the necessary 270 electoral votes in November, giving her a 55.1 percent chance of victory. Trump, on the other hand, was given a 44.7 percent chance of winning a second term as of Monday. National polls also show Harris leading on average, with less than 40 days until Election Day and a race that is too close to call.
With the 2024 race shaping up to be one of the closest presidential contests in U.S. history, experts are closely monitoring the outcomes in key swing states, particularly Pennsylvania. According to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state in the election, providing the winning electoral votes for either Harris or Trump in 18 out of 100 scenarios. Silver’s forecast indicates that Pennsylvania has a 31 percent chance of tipping the election, underscoring the state’s importance in determining the outcome in November.
As Election Day approaches, the focus remains on the tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with Pennsylvania emerging as a critical factor in determining the eventual winner. While Trump has gained ground in key swing states, Harris maintains an overall lead in national polls and is favored by Silver’s model to secure the necessary electoral votes. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the outcome of the election, with the race too close to call and the results potentially hinging on the outcomes in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
