Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead former President Donald Trump as the favorite to win the election in November, but recent polls show the race is a dead heat in key swing states. Bookmakers currently give Harris a 51.8% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 47.4%. This is a slight improvement for Trump, who was more than 9 points behind Harris last week after a series of favorable post-debate polls.
Harris surged ahead of Trump after a strong performance at the first presidential debate. Bettors on various platforms are also predicting a close race, with Harris slightly ahead of Trump. On Polymarket, Harris has a 50% chance of winning, while on Smarkets, bookmakers predict she has a 52.1% chance. PredictIt bettors continue to favor Harris with 57 cents per share compared to Trump’s 47 cents per share, virtually unchanged from last week.
In the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, Harris has a 51% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 49%. Earlier this month, Trump had higher odds in Pennsylvania, but the tide has shifted in Harris’ favor. Bettors also slightly favor Harris to win Nevada, showing another shift from earlier predictions. National polls show Harris leading Trump by 2.9%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.
Bookmakers on Polymarket believe there is a 27% chance of a second debate between Harris and Trump, down from 32% last week. Last week, Harris challenged Trump for another debate on CNN in late October, but Trump initially dismissed it as being “too late.” However, there are reports that Trump may be reconsidering the debate. The election remains highly contested, with both candidates having a strong chance of winning according to betting markets.
Overall, the election remains a close race with Harris currently leading Trump in the betting markets. Despite recent shifts in favor of Harris in key swing states, Trump continues to remain a strong contender. The possibility of a second debate between the two candidates adds an element of uncertainty to the race. As the election approaches, all eyes will be on the developments in the polls and betting markets to see who will emerge victorious in November.
