A quarter through the college football season, three out of twelve teams anticipated to make the College Football Playoff are out of the field. Miami, Tennessee, and USC have experienced an upward trend, with Miami projected to secure the No. 3 spot with a 72% probability of securing a playoff spot and a 40% chance of winning the ACC. Tennessee has a 73% chance of making the field following a victory over Oklahoma, and USC retains the 11th slot despite losing to Michigan and is given a 45% likelihood. Miami and Tennessee’s projected seeds have risen since two weeks ago.
Conversely, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Michigan, initially viewed as declining, have shown stability. Oregon retains a spot in the projected Playoff with a probability of 87% despite its overall team rating not improving. Notre Dame’s playoff odds are increased by 5% to 37% after a home loss to Northern Illinois. The Wolverines secured a victory over USC, but their prospects remain uncertain.
Teams such as Penn State and Boise State have shown improved odds. Penn State’s playoff odds have surged by 8% to 80%, supported by its overall improved team strength. Boise State managed to overcome a loss to Oregon and has seen a 13% increase in their playoff odds, taking it up to 36%. The team’s best player, Ashton Jeanty, is currently leading in EPA per rush and third in proportion of rushes that go over 20 yards.
Teams such as Michigan and LSU have seen a decline. Michigan, despite beating USC, has been relying on big runs and a pick-six, with the team’s chance of securing a playoff spot only increasing to 5%. Meanwhile, LSU’s odds at making the Playoffs dropped to 12% due to defensive weaknesses and an unforgiving schedule. The team lost a first-round wide receiver along with its Heisman Trophy quarterback.
Moving forward, teams like Penn State have promising prospects due to a projected high win rate for their games for the rest of the season. However, Michigan appears unlikely to execute a bid for the Playoffs given their loss and complex schedule. Boise State has emerged as the favorite from the Group of 5 entities, while LSU’s struggles on the defensive front cast their chances at the Playoffs under a dark cloud. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the fate of these teams.
