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Home»Elections
Elections

Notes on the AP Decision: Anticipated Outcomes of New Jersey’s Special Congressional Election

September 18, 2024No Comments3 Mins Read
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The voters in New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District will choose a successor to the late Democratic U.S. Rep. Donald Payne Jr. on Wednesday. Running to replace him are Democrat LaMonica McIver, president of the Newark City Council, Republican Carmen Bucco, a small business owner, and two minor-party candidates. McIver won a crowded primary on July 16, while Bucco was unopposed for the Republican nomination. The winner will serve out the remaining 15 weeks of Payne’s unexpired term. Democrats have a considerable advantage in the district, with President Joe Biden and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton carrying it in the 2020 and 2016 presidential races with over 80% of the vote.

New Jersey has had two other vacant seats to contend with recently. Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez resigned on Aug. 20 following his conviction on federal bribery charges, and Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy appointed George Helmy to fill the seat until voters elect a replacement in November. In the 9th Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell died on Aug. 21, and state Sen. Nellie Pou was tapped to replace him on the November ballot. The special election to replace Payne is being held on a Wednesday due to the specifics of New Jersey’s election law that require a special election to be held within a certain timeline.

The special election in the 10th Congressional District will be held on Wednesday, with polls closing at 8 p.m. ET. The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare a winner in the special congressional election. Any voter registered in the 10th Congressional District may participate in the special election. Special elections tend to have lower turnout, especially without other high-profile races on the ballot to attract voters. The district includes parts of Essex, Hudson, and Union counties, with Essex being the dominant player in elections.

The turnout in the 10th District in the 2022 general election was about 27% of registered voters, with about 21% of voters casting their ballots before election day. In the July 16 special Democratic primary, turnout was about 6% of registered voters. As of Wednesday, nearly 14,000 ballots had been cast before election day, with the majority coming from Democrats. The vote-counting process usually takes a few hours, with results being reported shortly after polls close. The winner will be declared based on the results and any potential recounts requested by candidates or voters.

The AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments in the election, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. While New Jersey does not have automatic recounts, candidates and voters may request them if the outcome is eligible for a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome. 48 days after the special election, the November general election will take place. Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election for further updates.

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