The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted by Selzer & Co. found Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by a small margin in Iowa, a state that Trump has previously won comfortably. This close race in a state where Trump has typically been dominant could signal positive outcomes for Harris, both in terms of polling accuracy and her chances in neighboring Wisconsin. The importance of the Selzer survey lies in its historical accuracy, with its predictions aligning closely with actual election results in past years.
In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, Selzer’s final polls accurately predicted Trump’s victory in Iowa, where he outperformed expectations in Wisconsin and other battleground states. This year, there are concerns about potential polling misfires, but Selzer’s recent poll suggests that other pollsters showing a close race are not underestimating Trump’s support. The data out of Wisconsin, which shares similar demographics with Iowa, also supports this trend, with Harris leading Trump in recent polls.
Recent polling from Wisconsin shows Harris with a slight lead over Trump, which is noteworthy given the state’s history of electoral surprises. Biden’s narrow victory in Wisconsin in 2020 and Clinton’s loss in 2016 illustrate the challenges of accurately predicting outcomes in the state. The Selzer poll suggesting a shift in Harris’ favor in Iowa could indicate a similar trend in Wisconsin, boosting her chances of success there and in the overall election.
While a win in Wisconsin would not guarantee victory for Harris, it would significantly improve her chances in the election. Winning Wisconsin, along with at least two other battleground states, would give Harris a strong advantage in securing the presidency. However, uncertainties remain, and polling data can change before Election Day. The current Selzer poll, which shows a more favorable result for Harris compared to previous years, offers some optimism for her campaign.
The significance of the Selzer poll lies in its historical track record of accuracy, particularly in states like Iowa and Wisconsin. While it is not a guarantee of victory for Harris, a positive outcome in this poll could signal a positive shift in her favor. The close race in Iowa and Harris’ lead in Wisconsin suggest a competitive and unpredictable electoral landscape leading up to the election. Overall, the Selzer poll reflects the current state of the race, providing valuable insights for both candidates and voters in the upcoming election.
