Allan Lichtman, an American University historian who has correctly predicted the outcomes of nine out of the last ten presidential elections, believes that Kamala Harris will be the winner of the November election. Lichtman developed the “Keys to the White House” formula in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok. This formula consists of 13 true or false questions that determine if certain parameters favor stability, with six or more keys going against the White House party predicting a loss. Lichtman’s prediction of Donald Trump’s win in 2016 made him virtually alone in making that call.
Lichtman states that the Democrats represented by Harris could lose at most five keys, but he predicts that Harris will become the first woman President of the United States. He notes that the unprecedented situation of a sitting president dropping out on the eve of the convention affected his keys, with Biden dropping out and the Democrats losing the incumbency key. However, the Democrats got smart by uniting behind Harris, preserving the contest key. Lichtman explains that the contest key refers to there being no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination, and that having Harris rather than Biden front and center has helped salvage a second key, the social unrest key.
The other keys in Lichtman’s formula include party mandate, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma. Lichtman believes that Harris being the focus of the Democratic campaign has dampened enthusiasm for protests, which helped salvage the social unrest key. Lichtman’s analysis shows that the keys indicate that Harris is a predicted winner. Overall, Lichtman’s prediction of Harris as the winner is based on his analysis of the keys and the Democrats’ decision to rally around Harris as their candidate.
In conclusion, Allan Lichtman, a historian with a strong track record of predicting presidential elections, believes that Kamala Harris will win the November election. Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” formula, developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, uses 13 true or false questions to determine if certain parameters favor stability. Lichtman’s prediction is based on the analysis of these keys and the Democrats’ decision to rally behind Harris as their candidate. Despite the Democrats losing some keys due to Biden dropping out, Lichtman sees Harris as a predicted winner, pointing to her role in dampening enthusiasm for protests, which helped salvage a key related to social unrest. Overall, Lichtman’s analysis suggests that Harris has a strong chance of making history as the first woman President of the United States.
