A recent poll in a key Senate race in Montana indicates that Republican challenger Tim Sheehy holds a six-point lead over Democratic incumbent Jon Tester. Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Purple Heart recipient, is backed by former President Trump and enjoys a strong ally in Sen. Steve Daines. Tester, a Montana farmer and former state lawmaker running for his fourth term in the Senate, is considered vulnerable, with Republicans heavily targeting him. The poll reveals that Tester will need to boost his support among independents or gain ground with Republicans to pull ahead in the race.
Democrats currently hold a razor-thin majority in the Senate, with Republicans eyeing a favorable election map this year. With Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs, Republicans are aiming to flip seats in red states like West Virginia, where moderate Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Manchin is not seeking reelection, making a GOP victory likely. In Ohio, where Trump won comfortably in 2020, Republicans are also targeting Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Five additional Democratic-held Senate seats up for grabs this year are in crucial presidential-election battleground states, making the fight for control of the chamber even more intense. Additionally, former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan’s entry into the Senate race in blue-state Maryland has given Democrats an unexpected challenge in territory that was previously considered safe for them. Hogan, who left the governor’s office with positive approval ratings, has injected uncertainty into the race.
The new AARP survey in Montana was conducted by the polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & David Binder Research (D) and included 1,064 likely voters. The poll, conducted from August 25-29, showed Sheehy leading Tester in both two-way and multi-candidate matchups. With Republicans accounting for 39% of likely voters in the state compared to Democrats’ 24%, Tester will need to broaden his support among independents or Republicans to secure a fourth term in the Senate.
The release of the poll in Montana comes as Republicans are aiming to win back control of the Senate, currently held by Democrats by a slim 51-49 margin. With a favorable election map this year and key races in red states like West Virginia and Ohio, Republicans are hopeful they can flip enough seats to regain the majority. Democratic efforts to protect their vulnerable Senate members in battleground states have been complicated by unexpected challenges such as Hogan’s entry into the race in Maryland, adding uncertainty to the battle for control of the chamber.
