The political battle over the amnesty is leading once again to the Constitutional Court, reminiscent of the 2007 battle over the Estatut. The PP is launching a strategy similar to that employed during the Estatut battle, with recusations aimed at breaking the progressive majority. However, legal and political sources suggest that this time the outcome will be different, as recent changes in the Court’s doctrine make it unlikely for the recusations to succeed. A 2021 ruling now states that recusations should only occur in exceptional cases to prevent rendering the Court ineffective.
The conservative strategy has launched recusations against three Constitutional Court members, but experts believe that these recusations are unlikely to succeed. A previous ruling in 2021, under a conservative majority, has set a precedent for rejecting recusations unless in exceptional cases, effectively protecting the current progressive majority. Despite the conservative tactics, it is expected that the Court’s decision on the amnesty will not be swayed by political pressures, particularly from the PP.
Progressive legal and political sectors believe that the PP’s maneuvers are unlikely to succeed, contrasting with past successes such as in the Estatut case. While one former Justice Minister, Juan Carlos Campo, may abstain from voting on the amnesty due to past statements against it, there is little indication that a shift in the Court’s composition will occur. Overall, it is anticipated that the Court’s decision will not be influenced by external political pressures from either side.
The PP’s leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is leading the charge against the amnesty with legal challenges, aiming to cast doubt on the Court’s impartiality. However, the government and other parties in the majority are confident that the amnesty issue will gradually fade from the political agenda, as public opinion shifts and the independence movement weakens. Despite Feijóo’s attempts to challenge the Court’s decision-making process, the expectation is that the amnesty issue will eventually diminish in significance.
The progressive sectors in the judiciary and politics are confident that the amnesty issue will not result in a significant shift in the Court’s composition or decision-making process. The PP’s attempts to challenge the current majority are expected to be unsuccessful, with the Court likely to uphold the legality of the amnesty. Despite Feijóo’s efforts to discredit the Court’s president, Cándido Conde Pumpido, it is anticipated that the Court’s decision will be based on legal grounds, independent of political influences. As the amnesty debate continues, it is expected that the Court’s decision will ultimately prevail, and the issue will gradually diminish in importance on the political agenda.
