In a memo released by Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign chair, Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, it was emphasized that despite surges in polling, fundraising, and volunteers, Harris remains a “clear” underdog as the 2024 presidential campaign nears its final stages. Following the decision to swap out President Joe Biden for Harris in July, Democrats have renewed hopes of defeating former President Donald Trump. However, O’Malley Dillon warned against complacency and stressed the need for a focused message linking Trump to an unpopular conservative policy manifesto and leveraging their ground game advantages to secure victory.
O’Malley Dillon highlighted the tight margins in battleground states and the motivated base of support that Trump has. She emphasized the need for Democrats to be vigilant and not take anything for granted, as the election is expected to be closely contested. The memo was released just before the Labor Day holiday, which typically signals the beginning of the most intense period in American electoral politics, as well as the start of mail ballots being sent to voters in key swing states like North Carolina.
The campaign’s strategy to win battleground states centers on their ground game advantages, with more than 312 offices opened and over 2,000 staff members hired by the campaign, Democratic National Committee, and state parties. O’Malley Dillon pointed out that Trump’s campaign lags behind in infrastructure in key battleground states, giving Democrats an edge in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia. The messaging strategy will focus on linking Trump to Project 2025 and defining who Harris is to voters.
While public polling shows Harris with a lead over Trump in the national average, O’Malley Dillon’s assertion that the campaign is a clear underdog is not necessarily reflected in the numbers. Harris holds a 47.1% to 43.8% lead over Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight, which gives her a 57% chance of winning. However, election data guru Nate Silver gives Trump a 55% chance of winning, indicating a close race in the upcoming election. The campaign will need to continue working hard to secure victory in the face of tough competition.
