As Vice President Kamala Harris prepares for a potential presidential run, it is important to consider the historical context of vice presidents who have sought the nation’s highest office. Historically, the vice presidency has served as a springboard to the presidency, but the success rate varies. Only one sitting vice president since 1836, George H.W. Bush, has successfully run for and won the presidency in 1988. Harris, as the first woman, Black, and South Asian vice president in U.S. history, faces a unique set of challenges and opportunities in her potential presidential bid.
The role of vice president has not always been highly esteemed, with John Adams famously describing it as “the most insignificant office.” In early U.S. elections, electors cast two votes for president and the runner-up became vice president. The historical trajectory of vice presidents moving on to the presidency varies. Fifteen out of 49 vice presidents have gone on to become president through various circumstances, such as the death or resignation of the president, or by winning an election in their own right after their vice presidential term ended. This list includes notable figures such as John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, and Joe Biden.
As Harris considers a potential presidential run, experts note that her situation is unique, making it difficult to draw direct comparisons to past vice presidential bids. Serving as vice president can provide certain advantages, such as support within one’s party and national name recognition, but it can also come with challenges, especially if the perception of the vice president is negative. Historically, the most electorally successful vice presidents who went on to win election as president were those who assumed the office due to the death of their president, setting them up for a successful presidential bid.
Vice presidents who have run for president in the past have encountered mixed success. Some, like Theodore Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson, and Calvin Coolidge, won by significant margins, while others, like Charles W. Fairbanks, Alben W. Barkley, and Hubert Humphrey, faced challenges in securing their party’s nomination or winning the general election. The vice presidency can be a double-edged sword, providing executive experience and visibility, but also tying the vice president to the administration they served under, for better or worse. For Harris, distancing herself from unpopular aspects of the Biden administration’s policies, while highlighting her own agenda and qualifications, will be key to a successful presidential campaign.
As Harris continues to carve out her own identity and platform separate from the Biden administration, she must navigate the challenges and opportunities that come with being the first woman, Black, and South Asian vice president in U.S. history. Her success in a potential presidential bid will depend on her ability to connect with voters, define her own agenda, and address any potential baggage from the current administration. By showcasing her knowledge, experience, and leadership skills, Harris aims to position herself as a viable candidate for the nation’s highest office, drawing on the historical trajectory of vice presidents who have sought and won the presidency.
