A new Elon University Poll in North Carolina shows that Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is struggling to maintain favorable ratings among voters, even within his own party. Only 30% of voters view him favorably, while his opponent, Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein, has a 44% favorability rating. The poll, which surveyed 1,095 registered voters, was conducted from Aug. 2 to 9, with a margin of error of +/-3.86%.
With absentee ballots set to go out in North Carolina soon, Robinson’s lack of popularity is becoming more apparent. Half of the state’s voters have an unfavorable view of Robinson, compared to just 29% who have an unfavorable view of Stein. Despite North Carolina typically favoring Republican candidates for president, down-ballot races often lean Democratic, with the current governor, attorney general, and secretary of state all being Democrats. Only four Republicans have held the governor’s seat in the last 100 years.
While Stein’s favorability is similar to that of Vice President Kamala Harris, there is a significant 16% favorability gap between Robinson and former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. Professor Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, pointed out that Republicans are more likely to be ticket splitters than Democrats, which could pose a challenge for Robinson. Independent voters, who often sway elections in North Carolina, are crucial in this context, as they typically lean Republican.
The poll also revealed that most Independent voters view Robinson unfavorably, while 27% do not view Stein favorably. Political advertising likely plays a role in the candidates’ favorability gap, as Stein’s fundraising efforts have significantly outpaced Robinson’s. Sixty percent of Stein’s donors have come from out-of-state, compared to just 40% for Robinson. Recent polls have shown varying leads for Stein over Robinson, with some indicating an 11-percentage point gap and others as little as 4 percentage points.
In conclusion, the Elon University Poll in North Carolina paints a challenging picture for Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson as he struggles to maintain favorable ratings among voters, even within his own party. With just days until absentee ballots go out, Robinson’s lack of popularity is becoming more evident, particularly in comparison to his opponent, Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein. The poll also highlights the importance of Independent voters in North Carolina elections, as they often play a decisive role in election outcomes. Robinson’s unfavorable ratings among Independent voters, along with the fundraising disparity between him and Stein, could pose significant challenges for his campaign.
