Vice President Kamala Harris is currently leading former President Donald Trump by a narrow margin, according to a recent survey released by The Wall Street Journal. In a head-to-head matchup, Harris garnered 48% support compared to Trump’s 47%. When considering third-party candidates, Harris’s lead extended to 2 percentage points, with 47% backing her against Trump’s 45%. Both results fell within the poll’s margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
Despite Harris leading in national polls, the survey suggests that Trump is still favored to win the Electoral College race. Historically, Democratic candidates need a lead of at least 3 points nationally to secure victory in the crucial battleground states that determine the election outcome. For instance, in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 2.1 percentage points in the popular vote but lost the key swing states, resulting in Trump’s Electoral College victory.
This poll marks the first time since April of last year that Trump has trailed in the presidential race in a head-to-head matchup. Harris’s recent surge can be attributed to the positive reception she received during the Democratic National Convention, a trend that may wane over time. Democratic voter enthusiasm for Harris increased to 90%, compared to Trump’s 82%, likely influenced by the convention. However, Harris’s job approval rating as vice president remains negative, with 51% disapproving and only 42% approving.
In terms of handling various issues, voters still trust Trump over Harris on the economy (by 8 points) and inflation (by 5 points). Additionally, Trump is seen as more capable than Harris in dealing with the Israel-Hamas conflict and threats from Russia and China. While Harris gained support among Black voters, her 83% support in this demographic remains lower than the 91% Biden received in the 2020 election exit polls. The Wall Street Journal poll surveyed 1,500 registered voters between Aug. 24-28, providing an overview of current voter sentiments and preferences.
The survey results highlight the fluctuating nature of political polling and voter sentiment. While Harris currently holds a slim lead over Trump, historical trends and the Electoral College dynamics suggest that Trump may still have an advantage in the race. Harris’s recent surge in popularity can be attributed to the positive reception she received at the Democratic National Convention, but her job approval ratings as vice president remain low. Additionally, voters still trust Trump on key issues, such as the economy and international relations, indicating that he remains a formidable opponent for Harris in the upcoming election. The ongoing shifts in voter enthusiasm and preferences underscore the uncertainty and complexity of the political landscape as the campaign season progresses.
