Vice President Kamala Harris’ presence at the Democratic convention in Chicago this week was a symbol of her positive impact on the party’s brand, with many Senate candidates taking the stage alongside her. While Harris has improved the Democratic standing in several states, the Senate races crucial for determining the majority are still challenging. Democrats are currently overperforming the top of the ticket, as they did when Biden was the nominee, but there are differences emerging among these races that could alter the outcome.
The Democratic party is facing a challenging map this year, defending seats in states that former President Donald Trump comfortably won. Republicans only need to win one more Senate seat to secure the majority. The top three states most likely to flip, West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, remain difficult for Democrats to hold. Michigan and Arizona, with open seats, are now more vulnerable as Democrats are on the defense due to the lack of well-known incumbent candidates.
As the September 10 debate against Trump approaches and election campaigns intensify, both parties expect the race in Senate seats to tighten. There is only one Democratic pickup opportunity, Texas, while Republicans are confident about expanding their map to include New Mexico. These rankings provide a current snapshot of the Senate races and may evolve as the election progresses.
In Montana, Senator Jon Tester faces a challenging reelection campaign in a state Trump carried by significant margins. Tester will need to overperform Vice President Harris by a large margin to secure victory. Democrats are highlighting Tester’s differences from his Republican opponent, while Republicans are trying to nationalize the race and tie Tester to the unpopular Biden administration.
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, another vulnerable Democrat, is running for reelection in a state that Trump narrowly won. Brown’s progressive populism has helped him defy the state’s red lean, but his opponent, Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, is stepping up his ad spending to make the race more competitive. Moreno’s campaign is focusing on immigration and painting Brown as being aligned with the Biden-Harris administration.
In the closely watched race to replace retiring Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is facing a tough challenge from Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. Slotkin’s campaign highlights her experience as a CIA analyst, while Republicans are targeting her on issues like border security and Covid relief funds. The race remains tight, with both candidates polling close to each other.
Arizona, an open-seat race currently held by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, is facing a strong challenge from Republican Kari Lake. Sinema’s departure from the race has made it more competitive, with immigration being a key issue in the state. Republicans are optimistic about their chances in Arizona, but with the state’s shifting demographics, Democrats still have a shot at retaining the seat.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Senator Bob Casey is facing a challenge from GOP candidate Dave McCormick, who is being attacked for his business ties to China. Casey’s campaign is highlighting McCormick’s ties to Wall Street and trying to tie him to special interests. The race remains close, with both candidates vying for support from independent and Republican voters. Abortion and immigration are key issues in this battleground state.
