The Democratic National Convention (DNC) showcased optimism regarding Vice President Kamala Harris’ candidacy, with her entry into the 2024 race energizing Democrats. As President Joe Biden dropped out, Harris saw a surge in polls, and her campaign reportedly raised $500 million within a month of joining the race. Harris accepted her party’s nomination on the final day of the convention. However, her opponent Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, has quietly had a successful week, with leading bookmakers naming him as the favorite to win the upcoming election. Polls have shown Trump leading Harris in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, or tied in states like Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, with speculation that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may drop out of the race to support Trump.
There have been signs that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may step out of the race and endorse Trump to prevent Harris from winning in November, which could benefit Trump’s campaign according to polls. Trump expressed openness to offering Kennedy a role in his administration if he drops out. The economy, viewed as a top issue for the 2024 race, has shown concerning signs with fewer job additions than originally reported and a worse-than-expected July job report. Harris announced economic proposals aimed at lowering the cost of goods and housing, which garnered some criticism. Both the Trump and Harris campaigns were contacted for comments. Political science experts like Costas Panagopoulos and Thomas Gift agree that small shifts in the polls could indicate different front-runners at different times, but the estimates are likely to remain within the margin of error, suggesting a close race with no clear winner.
Some commentators have pointed to Harris’ honeymoon phase, stating that as media scrutiny and policy details come into play, momentum could shift back to Trump. Harris has faced criticism for being unpopular as Vice President and her previous lack of support and resources during the 2019 Democratic primaries. Gift emphasized the importance of Harris solidifying her policy agenda and facing increased media scrutiny to maintain her momentum. The competitive nature of the race and evenly split preferences among voters suggest that the lead could change throughout the campaign period, reflecting a statistical tie with no clear winner. Despite the optimism surrounding Harris’ candidacy at the DNC, Trump continues to have a strong presence in the race and remains a competitive opponent for the upcoming election.
