A recent Cygnal survey of 800 likely November voters conducted on August 14 and 15 revealed that former President Donald Trump could potentially win Pennsylvania, as long as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains a significant factor in the race. In the survey, with Kennedy as a candidate, Trump leads with 44% support, followed closely by Vice President Kamala Harris at 43%. However, with Kennedy potentially fading as a third-party candidate, Harris gains an advantage, leading Trump 48% to 47% in a two-way race with 5% of voters undecided.
Kennedy’s support has decreased by 4 points month-over-month, and if he continues to lose traction, it could benefit Harris. This is particularly true among Independent voters who may choose to support Harris if Kennedy is eliminated as an option. Despite Trump’s lead with Kennedy in the race, Harris holds a slight advantage over him in a head-to-head battle, with 45% of voters definitely supporting her compared to 41% for Trump. This indicates a unique dynamic in the race and suggests that the presence or absence of Kennedy as a candidate could significantly impact the outcome.
The survey also highlighted a potential misstep by Harris in Pennsylvania, where she shunned Governor Josh Shapiro and instead chose Tim Walz of Minnesota as her running mate. Shapiro, who has a favorable rating of +22, stands out as one of the more popular politicians in the group, with Harris having a -5 rating weighed down by a high percentage of respondents viewing her very unfavorably. President Biden also received a dismal rating of -17, indicating dissatisfaction among Pennsylvania voters with current political leadership.
In the Senate race, incumbent Bob Casey is facing challenges with low approval ratings from voters, with fewer than four-in-ten believing he deserves reelection. Nearly half of voters express a desire for someone new, highlighting discontent with the current political landscape. GOP Senate hopeful Dave McCormick is ahead of Casey by 4 points, with independents driving the margin despite reservations from many voters. In a two-man matchup, Casey leads McCormick 46% to 33%, with a significant percentage of voters indicating that it may be time for someone new in office.
While Harris, Trump, and Biden all face varying levels of unpopularity among Pennsylvania voters, the dissatisfaction extends to Democratic policies as well. A majority of respondents, including a significant portion of Democrats and independents, believe that the country is on the wrong track. This sentiment is consistent with past administrations of the survey, indicating a widespread dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs. As the election approaches, candidates will need to navigate these sentiments and adapt their strategies to appeal to an electorate that is seeking change and a departure from the status quo.
