When Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, it sparked enthusiasm among voters and pulled the party into an even race with Donald Trump. As the campaign progresses, Harris now holds a 3-point lead nationally, and the focus has shifted to defining both her and key issues. Despite Trump’s advantages in the economy, voters see the election as being about more than just financial issues, including abortion, democracy, and the border. There is a noticeable gender gap between men and women in their perceptions of the candidates and the issues.
Heading into the convention, many voters are still learning about Harris, posing a crucial test for the party to define her message. While some believe her views are similar to Joe Biden’s, there is some differentiation, especially regarding the economy. Democrats have closed the gap with Republicans in expressing their intention to vote, with the gender gap playing a significant role. Women, in particular, view Harris as someone who fights for them and prioritize issues like gender equality and abortion.
Abortion and democracy are major factors for rank-and-file Democrats in their vote, surpassing the economy for many. Pro-abortion rights voters favor Harris over Biden, and the majority believe she will work to protect abortion rights. While Democrats prioritize abortion as a major factor, independents and Republicans are less likely to do so. The dynamic between Trump and Harris on issues like the economy and abortion will be crucial in the upcoming election.
Voters are still getting to know Harris, with many unsure of what she stands for compared to Trump, who is better defined. Harris is seen as somewhat connected to Biden’s economy, but her impact on it is perceived as limited. Harris and Trump are also evaluated on their border policies, with Trump leading among voters who prioritize this issue. However, border crossings have reportedly decreased, and perceptions of it being a crisis have slightly decreased since the spring.
The election hinges on voter turnout, with few expressing openness to considering another candidate. The party conventions will be key in maintaining enthusiasm among their base and defining what the 2024 election will be about. Close races are predicted in all battleground states, with both Harris and Trump positioned to win based on current estimates. The issues shaping vote choice include a range of factors, with voters identifying multiple issues as important in their decision-making process. The ongoing race to define Harris and the key issues will continue to shape the campaign as election day approaches.
