Military experts have suggested to Fox News Digital that Iran could potentially declare itself a nuclear power this year, particularly with the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. political future in the midst of a closely contested presidential election. James Carafano of The Heritage Foundation believes that this is a real possibility, especially with Biden likely to take no action if elected. The collapse of the Iran Nuclear Deal has accelerated Iran’s nuclear development, with the U.S. State Secretary warning that Iran may be close to achieving a nuclear weapon.
Carafano argues that the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election, along with Biden’s decision not to run for a second term, has provided Iran with a strategic opportunity to declare itself a nuclear power. Retired Lt. Gen. Charles Moore also believes that this is a possibility, but notes that declaring nuclear capabilities and effectively deploying and employing a nuclear weapon are two different things. However, if Iran were to make such a declaration, it is likely that Israel and the U.S. would take action to prevent it from happening.
Carafano emphasized that nuclear weapons act as a deterrent against other nuclear powers, but have limited utility beyond that. He pointed out that becoming a nuclear power is not a guarantee of safety, as it could prompt other countries in the region to seek nuclear capabilities as well. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that Iran has made significant nuclear advances under Biden’s administration and speculated that they may want to lock in these gains in case of a political shift.
Taleblu pointed out that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is a political decision influenced by Western policies, and that the decision to pursue weaponization is a complex process. He highlighted that Iran originally aimed to have a nuclear arsenal before being detected in 2002, and that their pursuit of nuclear weapons is driven by a desire for status and security. He emphasized that Western policies can shape Iran’s decisions in terms of nuclear weaponization.
Overall, the experts interviewed by Fox News Digital agree that Iran’s declaration of nuclear power is a real possibility, especially given the current political environment. The collapse of the Iran Nuclear Deal and the acceleration of Iran’s nuclear program have raised concerns about Iran’s potential to become a nuclear power in the near future. If Iran were to declare itself a nuclear power, it is likely to have significant implications for regional stability and nuclear proliferation.
