Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that July 2024 was the warmest July on record in the last 175 years. This marks the 14th consecutive month of record-breaking global warm temperatures. While NOAA’s data set the record for the warmest July by a small margin, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service ranked July 2024 as the second hottest July on record, just behind July 2023. Parts of the western and eastern U.S. experienced above-average or record warm temperatures, with states like New Hampshire and California being the most above average.
NOAA’s statistical analysis predicts that 2024 is likely to be a year for the record books. They estimate a 77% chance that it will be the warmest year on record and nearly a 100% chance that it will be among the top five warmest years. As high temperatures soared last month, drought conditions worsened across different parts of the U.S., including the Ohio Valley, southern and central plains, Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Hawaiian Islands. Approximately 22% of the country is currently experiencing drought, a significant increase from early July. The dry conditions and below-average precipitation have intensified wildfires, with over 80 wildfires of 100 acres or more burning predominantly in the Western U.S.
California’s Park Fire, which has grown rapidly to over 429,000 acres, became the 4th biggest wildfire in the state’s history. Intense weather conditions, including back-to-back days with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees, have fueled the spread of the blaze. NOAA has recorded 19 separate billion-dollar disasters from January to July this year, including wildfires like the South Fork Fire in New Mexico that destroyed over 1,000 buildings. NOAA forecasters also predict a 66% chance of the La Niña weather pattern arriving this fall, characterized by cooler temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which could lead to drier than normal conditions in Southern California and the Southwest.
The end of the El Niño weather pattern in June may pave the way for La Niña to take hold, potentially impacting hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. La Niña tends to weaken winds over the Atlantic, increasing the likelihood of hurricane formation. Despite La Niña possibly arriving later this year, warm surface temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic are already setting the stage for significant hurricane activity in the coming weeks. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began with Hurricane Beryl reaching Category 5 status, making it the earliest hurricane to achieve this designation. Hurricane Ernesto is currently moving north towards Bermuda, causing heavy rains and power outages in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
