In July, the national consumer price index (NIC) for the entire community, excluding tobacco, increased by 0.5% on a monthly basis and by 1.3% on an annual basis. This rise in inflation was primarily due to an acceleration in regulated energy prices and a decrease in the decline of unregulated energy prices. Prices for unprocessed food products and processed goods also showed a slower growth rate year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in the growth rate of the “shopping basket”. Inflation was also supported by increases in tobacco prices and recreational, cultural, and personal care services. However, prices for various services, non-durable goods, processed food, unprocessed food, and durable goods decelerated. Core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, remained stable at 1.9%, while inflation excluding only energy slightly decelerated to 1.8%. The inflation differential between services and goods increased to 3.1 percentage points.
The increase in the general index in July was mainly driven by the growth in prices for regulated energy goods, unregulated energy goods, recreational, cultural, personal care services, transport services, and processed food. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in prices for unprocessed food. The inflation rate for 2024 is projected to be 1.0% for the general index and 2.0% for the core component. The harmonized index of consumer prices (IPCA) decreased by 0.8% on a monthly basis due to summer sales not reflected in the NIC, but increased by 1.7% on an annual basis. In the industrial sector, both industrial turnover and service turnover decreased in May on a monthly and yearly basis, with a more pronounced decline in foreign market sales. Services saw contraction across most sectors except for accommodation and food services and information and communication services.
In terms of industrial turnover, there was a seasonal-adjusted decrease of 0.9% in value (-0.4% in volume) in May, with negative dynamics in both domestic and foreign markets. For services, there was a decrease of 0.6% in value and 0.4% in volume. Major industries like instrumental goods experienced a temporary increase, while consumer goods, intermediate goods, and energy saw declines. On a quarterly basis, industrial turnover declined by 2.5% in value and volume, while service turnover saw a positive trend with a 0.3% increase in value and 0.4% in volume. In May 2024, industrial turnover corrected for calendar effects fell by 4.8% in value and 3.4% in volume, with declines in both domestic and foreign markets.
Calendar-corrected turnover for major industrial groups showed a trend towards energy growth but decreases in consumer goods, intermediate goods, and instrumental goods. In services, there were year-on-year increases in value and volume. The overall trend in the industrial sector was a decrease, with a more pronounced decline in foreign market sales. Overall, the data suggests a complex picture of price fluctuations and turnover changes across different sectors and markets, highlighting the ongoing impact of various economic factors on inflation and industrial performance.
