Pollster Tony Fabrizio has warned the Trump campaign of a potential “Harris Honeymoon” that could result in Vice President Kamala Harris gaining on or even leading President Trump in public polling. Following the announcement that President Joe Biden would not seek reelection, Fabrizio anticipates positive media coverage of Harris, energizing Democrats and some parts of their coalition. Despite Trump currently leading Harris by about two points in polls, this could change as the election enters “uncharted territory.”
Fabrizio acknowledges that Harris will likely receive a boost in the polls sooner than expected, particularly with her impending VP choice. While such boosts are common during elections, he wants to manage expectations with Trump by reminding him of ongoing voter concerns such as the economy, inflation, crime, the open border, housing costs, and foreign wars. He believes that Harris’ “honeymoon” phase will eventually fade as voters refocus on her role as Biden’s partner and co-pilot.
The memo was shared with reporters and outlines Fabrizio’s concerns about the potential impact of the media coverage surrounding Harris and Biden’s decision. He notes that the coverage will be positive and could lead to a significant shift in public polling in favor of Harris. In response to the memo, Real Clear Politics currently shows Trump ahead of Harris by a narrow margin, although Fabrizio anticipates this could change in the near future.
While Fabrizio predicts a temporary boost for Harris in the polls, he also warns that this honeymoon phase will not last indefinitely. Eventually, voters will shift their focus back to policy issues and concerns, potentially impacting Harris’ standing in the polls. Ultimately, Fabrizio’s goal appears to be to set realistic expectations for the Trump campaign and prepare them for potential shifts in public opinion as the election cycle progresses.
The Trump campaign has yet to respond to inquiries from the media regarding Fabrizio’s memo and its implications for the campaign. It remains to be seen how the campaign will adjust its strategy in light of the warnings outlined in the memo. As the election enters a new phase with Biden’s decision not to seek reelection, both campaigns will need to navigate the changing dynamics of the race and adapt their messaging accordingly to remain competitive in the polls.
