After the June 27 presidential debate, top advisers to Donald Trump anticipated Democratic handwringing over President Joe Biden’s performance to cool down. However, the next morning brought intensified Democratic calamity, sparking early plotting for the potential scenario of Biden stepping aside. Behind the scenes, amidst preparations for a convention and a nation-rattling assassination attempt, Trump’s advisers studied potential Democratic contenders, polled Trump against a replacement, and began attacking Vice President Kamala Harris more aggressively, believing her to be the most likely heir-apparent. The announcement of Biden not running for reelection led to Trump’s campaign managers swiftly releasing a statement linking Harris to the administration’s policies and an aligned super PAC reserving airtime in swing states to define Harris negatively.
The Trump campaign had initially not taken serious steps to prepare for the possibility of Biden stepping down, as they had focused on defeating him. Trump’s team had already invested millions in predicting battleground results, organizing data operations, and planning advertising contrasts between the candidates. Now, with Biden out of the race, much of their previous work needs to be reconsidered, particularly given the changed landscape of the race. Trump, as the oldest major party nominee in history, becomes the candidate whose age could be a concern for some voters regardless of who the Democrats select as a replacement.
Republicans initially watched the chaos on the Democratic side with glee, but soon acknowledged that a Biden withdrawal would also create uncertainty for their own campaign. The Trump campaign began researching DNC rules and bylaws to understand the processes if Biden were to exit, while also ramping up attacks on Harris. Trump’s team is planning a negative ad campaign focusing on Harris’ record, both during her time as vice president and as a prosecutor in California. They aim to define her to the public, as polling suggests that while Harris is known, most Americans still lack substantial knowledge about her.
Unknown is whether voters, particularly those who desired to move on from Trump, will gravitate toward a fresh face like Harris as the Democratic nominee. Harris has an opportunity to reenergize disenchanted Democrats who were not as supportive of Biden’s presidency. Depending on who joins Harris on the ticket, Trump could face new challenges in swing states as potential vice presidential candidates like Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, and Roy Cooper have been mentioned. The Trump campaign is focused on Harris, conducting internal polling to assess her viability in a match up against Trump. The campaign is bracing for a real campaign against a Democratic nominee who is viewed as a more serious contender than Biden.
The campaign has also started attacking Harris, trying to tie her to administration policies like the border crisis and inflation, which could be problematic for Democrats. The Trump team is signaling plans to make Harris’ relationship with Biden and her past record as a prosecutor central campaign points. They plan to emphasize failures under the Biden administration and Harris’s involvement, while also preparing attacks on crime and other key issues. With uncertainties on the Democratic side and the potential for a shifting landscape, the Trump campaign is strategizing and preparing for a tough and competitive race to the finish.
