The distribution of top jobs in the European Union following the elections to the European Parliament is a delicate process that involves considerations of political affiliations, geographical origins, and gender balance. The 27 heads of state and government will convene in Brussels to discuss and potentially assign the roles of president of the European Commission, president of the European Council, and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. While the negotiations have traditionally been complex and time-consuming, this year’s process may be smoother due to a consensus emerging quickly after the elections, with Ursula von der Leyen for the Commission, António Costa for the Council, and Kaja Kallas for High Representative being identified as likely candidates.
Ursula von der Leyen, the current president of the European Commission, is considered the frontrunner for re-election. Despite facing obstacles such as criticism of her centralised way of working and controversial responses to various issues, von der Leyen’s strong performance in the elections has bolstered her position. She has been engaged in negotiations to build a centrist coalition for the next five years, but will need to secure support from a majority of the European Parliament to retain her position. While there were speculations about possible alternatives to von der Leyen, such as other EPP leaders and former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the lack of credible alternatives has solidified her position for re-election.
The role of president of the European Council is being eyed by the Socialists and Democrats, with António Costa, the former prime minister of Portugal, emerging as a leading candidate. Costa’s constructive approach and approachable character have garnered him support, despite facing accusations of corruption and influence peddling during his time in office. Mario Draghi has also been considered as a potential candidate for the Council, given his credentials, but his lack of political affiliation may complicate his appointment. The Socialists have identified Mette Frederiksen of Denmark as an alternative, although she has denied interest in the role.
The High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, currently held by Josep Borrell, is likely to go to a candidate from Eastern Europe within the liberal political family. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has emerged as a leading contender for the role, given her strong stance on issues such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the need for tougher sanctions against the Kremlin. While her policies were once considered too hard-line, the changing global landscape has shifted the debate in her favor. Belgium’s Alexander De Croo and Poland’s Radosław Sikorski are also potential candidates, but their Western European origins and political affiliations may present challenges in securing the role.
Overall, the distribution of top jobs in the European Union post-elections involves complex negotiations and considerations. While there is a potential consensus emerging around candidates such as Ursula von der Leyen for the Commission, António Costa for the Council, and Kaja Kallas for High Representative, the final agreement may be subject to further discussions and potentially be finalized at a formal summit in June. The selection of candidates for these key roles will impact the direction and priorities of the EU in the coming years, as they navigate pressing issues such as global crises and foreign policy challenges.
