According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia has been inflicting significant damage on Ukraine’s energy grid, which could impact Kyiv’s war fighting capabilities. This is due to a series of missile and drone strikes that have caused long-term damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The ISW predicts that Ukraine will face increased energy constraints over the summer, with Russia likely to continue periodic large-scale strikes on energy infrastructure to degrade Ukraine’s capabilities and set conditions for humanitarian pressures in the future.
As a result of the attacks, Ukraine’s power generation capacity has been severely impacted, with the country going from being able to produce 55 gigawatts of energy before the war to having less than 20 GW of capacity. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that more than 9 GW of generation capacity has been lost due to the attacks, leading to a difficult situation that will require long-term solutions. Shmyhal emphasized the need to strengthen the energy sector, repair damaged equipment, enhance air defenses, decentralize the energy grid, and promote responsible electricity consumption in order to mitigate the impact of the attacks.
Borys Dodonov, head of energy and climate studies at the Kyiv School of Economics, warned that without additional measures, the population could face severe electricity shortages in January, with only two to four hours of electricity per day. He suggested that increasing tariffs may be necessary to avoid a disaster. The Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have led to rolling blackouts across the country, with the British Defense Ministry noting that Ukraine’s power network has managed to maintain stable operations despite the ongoing attacks.
Despite the challenges faced by Ukraine’s energy sector, Russia has continued to target energy infrastructure, leading to further disruptions in electricity supply. The situation has become so dire that some experts warn of a potential humanitarian catastrophe if the grid is not repaired quickly. As winter approaches, the implications of the bombing campaign are expected to worsen, making urgent action necessary to prevent a potential crisis during the colder months. It is essential for Ukraine to take immediate steps to address the damage caused by the attacks and ensure that the country’s energy infrastructure is resilient enough to withstand future threats.
