In the Montana Senate primaries, Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester and Republican entrepreneur Tim Sheehy easily won their party’s nominations. Tester, known as a rural farmer with deep ties to the state, has served in the Senate since 2006 and has positioned himself as a moderate, sometimes breaking with his party. His seat is one of the ones Democrats are fighting fiercely to defend in the upcoming general election. On the Republican side, Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and founder of an aerial firefighting company, emerged as the frontrunner with endorsements from Sen. Steve Daines and former President Donald Trump.
Montana, a state where Trump won by over 16 points in 2020, is expected to have one of the most competitive and costly Senate races this cycle. Tester, the only Democrat serving in statewide office in Montana, faces challenges in the changing political landscape of the state, which has seen an increase in Republican residents. Tester has won close elections in the past by running as a moderate, but with the shifting demographics, his campaign strategy appears to be changing. He has been breaking with his party on issues like border security and the economy, distancing himself from President Biden to align more with the views of his opponent.
Sheehy’s campaign has focused on attacking Tester for his support of what they call the “state-sponsored political persecution” of former President Trump. Sheehy has been positioning himself as a strong contender, hoping to capitalize on Tester’s perceived weaknesses and the shifting political dynamics of the state. Montana Republicans may be motivated to ensure GOP control of the Senate, as seen in exit polling from Daines’ previous election. Tester faces challenges in holding onto his seat in a state where Republicans have been gaining dominance in recent elections.
Despite Sheehy’s strong campaign, he faced criticism earlier in the year for discrepancies in his story of sustaining a gunshot wound. Both candidates have tried to paint each other as the establishment candidate with deep ties to Washington, but Sheehy has also faced attacks for being an out-of-state wealthy individual buying up expensive property in Montana. Public lands have been a key issue in the campaign, with both candidates expressing support, but Sheehy’s background as an out-of-stater has led to some skepticism among voters.
In a year where Democrats face steep odds of holding the majority in the Senate, Tester’s reelection campaign faces tough challenges. With Montana being a key target for the GOP, Sheehy and Tester are engaged in a competitive race that will likely be closely watched leading up to the November elections. The state’s changing demographics and political landscape pose a unique set of challenges for both candidates as they navigate their campaigns in a hotly contested race for a crucial Senate seat.
