A new poll conducted by NPR, PBS NewsHour, and Marist National survey of 1,122 registered voters found that Donald Trump has a significant lead over Joe Biden among independent voters. Trump secured 54 percent of the vote among independents compared to Biden’s 42 percent in a head-to-head race. The poll, conducted between May 21 and 23, had a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Trump’s lead was even higher among independent male voters at 56 percent compared to Biden’s 39 percent, while among independent women voters, Trump led at 50 percent to Biden’s 47 percent.
In a five-way race including other candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein, Trump maintained his lead among independents. Trump secured 44 percent of the vote, compared to Biden’s 28 percent, RFK Jr.’s 17 percent, West’s three percent, and Stein’s four percent. Once again, Trump performed better among independent male voters with 45 percent compared to Biden’s 29 percent. The race remained tight overall between Biden and Trump, with Biden leading 50 percent to Trump’s 48 percent in a head-to-head race, and Trump leading at 44 percent to Biden’s 40 percent in a five-way race.
Independents are considered a critical voting block for both Biden and Trump to win over for the November election, as key battleground states will likely be determined by small swings in independent voters. In 2020, Georgia and Arizona were won by Biden with very narrow margins, highlighting the importance of independent voters. Trump has recently tried to appeal to non-Republican voters by speaking at the Libertarian Party’s national convention, where he received only 0.65 percent of the vote for the party’s presidential nominee. The Libertarian Party, while the third-largest political party by voter registration, typically garners around 3 percent of the national vote and has limited influence in American politics.
Overall, the race between Biden and Trump remains close, with both candidates neck and neck in head-to-head and five-way race scenarios. Independents play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election, especially in key battleground states where the margin of victory can be very narrow. Trump’s lead among independent voters, especially among men, could be a significant factor in the election. Biden and Trump will continue to vie for the support of independent voters in the coming months leading up to the November election.
