Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, suggested that if Joe Biden is still struggling in the polls by the end of the summer, he should consider dropping out of the presidential race. Recent polls have shown former President Donald Trump leading in key swing states and Biden receiving low favorability ratings. However, a new poll this week shows the race deadlocked nationally, with Biden standing at 48% among registered voters and Trump at 47%. In a likely five-candidate showdown, Biden stands at 41%, Trump at 38%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 14%, Jill Stein and Cornel West at 2% each. Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Mally highlighted that a significant number of registered voters are still undecided.
A Fox News survey earlier this month also showed Trump narrowly ahead of Biden by one point in a tightened race, as economic optimism pushed approval of Biden up. Silver added that if Biden is still trailing Trump by three points or more in the swing states in August, he would be a significant underdog and should consider alternatives. He also noted that if the first debate goes poorly for Biden and he is polling five to six points behind Trump in swing states, it would be a nearly unsalvageable position, and he would have to “pull the emergency lever.” The two candidates have agreed to two TV debates in June and September ahead of the election on Nov. 5.
FiveThirtyEight accurately predicted that Biden would win the 2020 election but incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton would beat Trump in 2016. Silver emphasized the importance of considering all possibilities and alternatives if Biden’s poll numbers do not improve. He highlighted that sometimes all you can choose from is different types of bananas, indicating that tough decisions may need to be made. The upcoming TV debates are crucial for both candidates, and their performance could have a significant impact on the race. Stay up to date with the latest news from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews, and more on the Fox News Digital election hub.
In conclusion, the upcoming election between Biden and Trump appears to be tightly contested, with recent polls showing the two candidates neck and neck nationally. Biden has been struggling in some key swing states, prompting discussions about the possibility of him dropping out of the race if his numbers do not improve by the end of the summer. The upcoming debates are expected to be critical moments for both candidates, potentially influencing undecided voters and swaying the momentum of the race. As Silver emphasized, considering all options and alternatives is crucial in a highly important election like this. Keep informed about the latest updates and developments on the 2024 campaign trail by visiting the Fox News Digital election hub.
