A new poll of the Arizona Senate race showed bad news for Republican candidate Kari Lake. Lake, a former television news anchor vying to become the Republican nominee in the crucial battleground race, was found trailing Representative Ruben Gallego, the front-runner in the Democratic primary. The Noble Predictive Insights poll indicated that Gallego holds a 10-point lead over Lake, with 46 percent of respondents planning to vote for him in November compared to 36 percent for Lake. Nineteen percent of respondents said they were unsure how they would vote.
Gallego’s lead is supported by a strong showing among independent voters, with 42 percent planning to vote for him compared to 26 percent for Lake. In the Republican primary, Lake still maintains a comfortable lead over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, with 46 percent of respondents planning to vote for her versus 21 percent for Lamb. However, the poll noted that Lake’s support has declined since a previous poll in February that found 54 percent of Republicans planning to back her. The poll was conducted from May 7 to 14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points.
Kari Lake rose to national prominence during her 2022 gubernatorial race against Democrat Katie Hobbs, which she lost by less than one percentage point. Lake is a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed her campaign, and has echoed his unproven claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election. On the other hand, Ruben Gallego is a former U.S. Marine first elected to the House in 2014, easily winning reelection with 77 percent of the vote in 2022.
Arizona, a state roughly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, has seen a shift in recent years. In 2018, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won a U.S. Senate race, followed by President Joe Biden flipping the state in the presidential election in 2020. Sinema, who has since changed her party affiliation to independent, opted not to run for a second term. The Cook Political Report classifies the Arizona Senate race as Lean Democrat, meaning it is considered competitive but with an advantage for Democrats. Other polls have similarly found Gallego leading in the race.
The outcome of the Arizona Senate race could have implications on whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate in January 2025. With Gallego holding a lead over Lake in the polls and Arizona’s recent shift towards Democrats, the race is expected to be closely watched. Both candidates have strong support within their respective parties, but Gallego’s lead among independent voters could prove to be a crucial factor in determining the ultimate outcome of the race. As the campaign continues, both Lake and Gallego will likely focus on mobilizing their base and reaching out to undecided voters to secure victory in November.
