According to the latest pre-election barometer published by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) maintains a five-point lead over the People’s Party (PP) following the recent Catalan elections. The CIS estimates that the PSOE will be the most voted party in the upcoming European elections on June 9th, with a projected vote share of 32.8% to 35.2%, translating to 21 to 24 seats in the European Parliament. The PP, on the other hand, is expected to gain between 18 and 20 seats with a vote share of 27.9% to 30.2%, indicating growth but falling short of the expectations set by Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
Vox, a right-wing party that gained four seats in the previous European elections, is expected to maintain its presence with 5 to 6 seats and a vote share of 8.6% to 10.1%. In fourth place is Sumar, with 4 MEPs and a support level of 5.9% to 7.2%, slightly ahead of Podemos. Unidas Podemos, led by former minister Irene Montero, is projected to secure between 2 and 3 seats with a vote share of 4.4% to 5.4%. The coalition of ERC, EH Bildu, BNG, and Ara Més known as Ahora Repúblicas is also estimated to gain 2 to 3 seats with 5% of the vote.
The newly emerging electoral option of Se Acabó la Fiesta, led by far-right activist Alvise Pérez, could secure one or two seats with a support level ranging from 2.9% to 3.8%. Junts i Lliures per Europa, follows closely behind with similar seat possibilities and a support level of 2.2% to 3%. Ciudadanos, the third most voted party in the previous European elections with 8 seats, is experiencing a decline but is expected to retain representation in Europe with 1 or 2 seats and a vote share of 1.8% to 2.6%. For a Solidarity Europe may obtain a seat with a support level below 2%.
In the upcoming elections on June 9th, Spain will elect 61 Members of the European Parliament out of the 720 that make up the parliament. Spain will gain two of the new 15 seats in the European Parliament. The projections suggest that the PSOE will maintain its lead over the PP, while other parties like Vox and Unidas Podemos are also expected to secure seats and influence in the European Parliament. The emergence of new options like Se Acabó la Fiesta and the continued presence of Ciudadanos highlight the diverse political landscape in Spain leading up to the elections.
