The recent elections in Catalonia have not only resulted in a socialist victory and a loss of an absolute majority for the independence movement, but have also reshaped the landscape of the right-wing parties in the region. The most notable development is the resurgence of the Popular Party (PP), which has increased its representation from 3 to 15 seats, at the expense of Ciudadanos. Despite this growth, the PP has not been able to displace Vox, a far-right Spanish nationalist party, which maintains its 11 seats. Additionally, a new ultra-nationalist party from the independence movement, Aliança Catalana, has gained two seats. Together with Junts, a traditional Catalan right-wing party now supporting independence, this shift has led to a clear right-wing trend in the Catalan Parliament.
The combined vote share of the PP and Vox has reached almost 20%, an increase of nearly three points compared to the previous elections. The PP has absorbed the remaining support from Ciudadanos, a party that emerged in Catalonia as a response to the growing independence movement and even won the elections in 2017. However, the PP’s growth extends beyond this absorption and achieves the goal set by Alberto Núñez Feijóo to become the fourth largest party, surpassing Vox. The key for the PP now lies in its parliamentary utility, which will determine its recognition as a negotiating partner by the nationalist right and the Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC). The leadership of Alejandro Fernández has been vindicated by this electoral success, contrasting with the anti-Catalan rhetoric of the PP in the rest of Spain.
The campaign strategy of the PP in Catalonia has been notably distinct from the national party’s approach, demonstrating an understanding of the local context and issues. The party’s avoidance of the amnesty issue during the campaign, despite its relevance in Catalonia, highlights its efforts to distance itself from divisive rhetoric. Additionally, the PP has refrained from engaging in anti-Catalan sentiment in its competition with the Vox, whose strong showing in the elections is concerning. Vox, founded by a former dissident of the Catalan PP, Alejo Vidal-Quadras, has maintained its support base and shows no signs of waning. The rise of Aliança Catalana, an ultra-nationalist party, further underscores the challenge of extremism in Catalan politics.
Both Vox and Aliança Catalana collectively account for 12% of the vote and 10% of the seats in the Parliament, serving as a stark reminder of the dangers of normalizing extremist rhetoric. Despite warnings from other parties not to align with these parties, neither the PP nor Ciudadanos made any commitments in this regard during the campaign. It is clear that the rise of these extremist parties reflects a broader trend of radicalization in Catalan politics, requiring a careful and thoughtful approach from all parties to prevent further polarization and division. The results of the elections highlight the need for a nuanced and inclusive dialogue within the Catalan society, in order to address the complex political challenges the region faces.
