There is a good chance that Donald Trump’s polling lead in the 2024 presidential election is more fragile than it looks. The most immediate problem for him is the fact that he’s on trial in a criminal case, which keeps him away from the campaign trail. The campaign itself is a smaller affair than his 2020 effort, with fewer resources, causing concern among GOP officials in key states who have yet to receive promised funding, staff, or briefings on the new plans. Trump could hold his lead through the summer and fall but still fail to turn stated preferences into actual votes, making his lead potentially ephemeral.
Trump and his allies are already laying the foundation for an effort to contest or overturn the results of the November election if he is not returned to the White House. Even though it is too early to say whether the polls are right or wrong, Trump continues to maintain that he won the last presidential election and has suggested that he would only accept the results of the 2024 election if he deems it “honest.” His allies, like Senator J.D. Vance, have made similar statements, indicating that if Trump does not win, they may not accept the results.
A significant part of the Republican Party, under Trump’s influence, is gearing up to contest the election results, using the unfounded claim of illegal voting by immigrants as a possible reason for an unfair, unfree, or unconstitutional election. The party, unable to move on from Trump, seems incapable of accepting that he may not be a popular figure among large portions of the American public. If Biden wins the election, there is a fear that Trump and his allies will cry out “illegal voting” and demand that states overturn the results, potentially leading to unrest or violence.
Despite the possibility of a Biden victory, the threat to American democracy may not end as the Republican Party continues to view Democratic voters as not quite American or legitimate representatives of the nation. Republicans have a history of questioning the legitimacy of Democratic victories, from Nixon’s “silent majority” to Trump’s claims of fraud and illegal voting. There is a deep-seated belief within the Republican Party that Democrats cannot legitimately claim to represent the nation, regardless of the number of votes they earn or elections they win.
It is essential for the Republican Party to break free from Trump’s influence and come to terms with the fact that he may not be an electoral juggernaut, allowing the party to move on from his divisive figure. Most political parties typically move on from standard-bearers who fail to close the deal with the voting public, but the Republican Party seems unable to do so. If the party cannot accept the reality of Trump’s lack of popularity, it will continue to seek ways to contest election results and undermine the democratic process, posing a threat to American democracy.
