When China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, hosts President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia this week, the two leaders are expected to present a united front, but they have different agendas. Mr. Putin is trying to escalate his war in Ukraine before Ukrainian forces can receive a replenishment of arms from the United States, and likely wants to know he can rely on China. Mr. Xi will seek to bolster his strategic partner and “old friend,” but is also under pressure to avoid further alienating the West over his support for Russia. Mr. Putin will seek more help from Beijing, which has provided a lifeline to the Kremlin ever since Western sanctions were imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago.
The visit is Mr. Putin’s first foreign trip since winning his fifth presidential election in March. Mr. Xi paid the same respect to Mr. Putin when he made Russia his first foreign trip after securing his norm-shattering third term as China’s president in March 2023. The two leaders have cast their relationship as deeply personal by exchanging birthday greetings and referring to each other as “old” and “dear” friends. Mr. Xi sees in Mr. Putin a like-minded autocratic leader who blames the United States for holding back his country’s rise. Both leaders view themselves as architects of a new world order free of U.S. interference.
China has vowed not to provide lethal weapons to Russia, but the United States and Western analysts say China has been aiding Russia with satellite intelligence and fighter jet parts and supplying components with both civilian and military uses. Mr. Putin will likely want any such supply of parts and equipment to continue to help sustain his military’s advances as he intensifies the war effort. Russian forces opened a new line of attack near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, and Ukraine’s forces are running short on weapons. In addition to military aid, Mr. Putin is expected to seek more trade and business deals, including an agreement on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
Mr. Xi has attempted to align with Russia and steady ties with the West at the same time to help his ailing economy, an approach that some call a strategic straddle. China casts itself as neutral on the war in Ukraine and as a proponent of peace, offering a vague, 12-point plan for a political settlement of the war. Western countries have dismissed China’s efforts due to lack of condemnation of the Kremlin’s war. Mr. Xi’s refusal to condemn the war has worsened China’s relations with the West and led to Europe’s growing alignment with the United States on security issues. This makes China’s efforts to head off a trade war with the European Union harder for Mr. Xi.
Tensions are rising with the United States following the Biden administration’s announcement of a sharp increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, solar cells, semiconductors, and advanced batteries. Mr. Xi’s strategic straddle and support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine have led to further alienation from the West. While Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin will likely try to project strength and solidarity during their summit to demonstrate an alternative to the U.S.-led global system, Mr. Xi risks alienating key trading partners in Europe. The China-Russia relationship continues to strengthen, but with growing tensions with the West, Mr. Xi faces challenges in maintaining a delicate balance between supporting Russia and stabilizing relations with Europe and the United States.
