President Biden’s significant cash advantage and infrastructure have not helped his polling deficit against Donald Trump. In an effort to revive his campaign, Biden offered to move up the first presidential debate by three months, forcing Americans to confront their choice sooner. Trump quickly accepted and proceeded to lower expectations for Biden’s performance. This move was a public acknowledgment that Biden is trailing in the race, while also mitigating the risk of an 81-year-old president participating in a live 90-minute debate.
The agreement for two debates instead of the traditional three limits Biden’s exposure and allows both candidates more opportunities to recover if they stumble. Mr. Trump, who has accused Biden of being diminished since 2020, eagerly agreed to the debates, losing leverage to demand more. By accepting Biden’s terms, Trump has set himself up for direct confrontations that could impact the trajectory of the race. The accelerated timeline will give both candidates time to recover from potential uneven performances.
Both campaigns had engaged in back-channel talks about debates in advance of Biden’s offer, showing a mutual interest in bypassing the Commission on Presidential Debates. By scheduling only two debates with major hosts, the campaigns are prioritizing direct confrontation between the two major-party candidates. The timing of these debates could significantly impact the election, as most voters will not have access to their ballots by then.
Despite trailing in polls, Biden’s campaign believes that once voters accept the two men as their only realistic options and consider Trump’s record in office, Biden’s support will improve. Trump has spent months questioning Biden’s mental acuity and stamina, setting the stage for what is expected to be a high-stakes confrontation in the debates. The race is characterized by low popularity for both candidates, creating a highly competitive environment.
Biden’s more aggressive approach towards Trump, with speeches highlighting the stakes of the election, reflects his campaign’s belief that voters need to be reminded of Trump’s record. An incorrect belief among voters that Biden, not Trump, was responsible for ending abortion rights shows the need for clarification. The debates are expected to be crucial moments for both candidates to sway voters and solidify their standing in the race.
The decision to abandon the debate commission was not surprising, as both candidates favored direct confrontation without third-party candidates. Biden’s team was frustrated with the commission for allowing Trump to debate in 2020 despite appearing ill and later testing positive for COVID-19. The move to set up two debates limits exposure while still providing opportunities for the candidates to shape their messaging and recover from potential setbacks. Ultimately, the debates will be crucial events in shaping the outcome of the 2024 election.
