The deadly attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall venue has left 137 people dead and hundreds injured, leading to mourning across Russia. The blame for the attack has been placed on Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin, although Islamic militants claimed responsibility. The FSB, Russia’s counterterrorism agency, is under scrutiny for failing to anticipate the attack despite warnings from the U.S. about potential threats to large gatherings in Moscow.
Experts suggest that the FSB’s focus on Ukraine and other geopolitical threats may have diverted attention away from the Middle East, allowing the ISIS-K militants to slip through and carry out the attack. The agency’s priorities have shifted in recent years, with an emphasis on the conflict in Ukraine and vilifying Western backers of Kyiv. It is unclear why the FSB did not act on the warnings from the U.S., despite publicly available information about the threat.
Moscow’s official response to the attack has been confused and contradictory, with Kremlin officials blaming the U.S., UK, and Ukraine for the incident. Russian state media reported that the four attackers were from Tajikistan and appeared to have signs of torture. However, there is no evidence linking the attack to the Ukrainian government. The Kremlin has struggled to reconcile its information operations with the reality of the intelligence and law enforcement failure.
The consequences of the attack for the FSB are unclear, with experts suggesting that there may be a greater physical security presence but that the agency will likely continue to focus on the war in Ukraine. The FSB’s reputation is not expected to significantly deteriorate, but it may be challenging for the agency to reallocate resources given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The attack has raised questions about the effectiveness of Russia’s intelligence and security services and the need for a shift in priorities to address potential threats from extremist organizations like ISIS-K.
