Spain will transition from warm anomalies over the weekend to cold anomalies starting on Tuesday, according to César Rodríguez Ballesteros from AEMET. Seasonal predictions for the summer of 2024, provided by Copernicus’ climate change service, indicate a high probability of above-average temperatures throughout Spain, with a 50 to 70% chance that the upcoming summer will rank among the top 20% warmest recorded in the country. The heatwave affecting Spain will also extend to Southern Europe and Northern Africa, with below-average rainfall expected across the country. This trend marks the tenth consecutive year of warm or extremely warm summers in Spain, with only 2020 being an exception.
This week, a respite from the heat is expected, with the exception of Monday when high temperatures will continue after a weekend where temperatures reached up to 34°C in some areas. A notable drop in temperatures is anticipated on Tuesday, with a significant thermal decrease across most of the country, particularly in the northern regions. This cooling trend will continue into the following days, with temperatures expected to be 5-10°C below average in western and central areas of the peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday. However, this cool spell will be short-lived, as temperatures are expected to rise again towards the end of the week.
Rainfall is also expected this week, with the passage of Atlantic storm systems bringing precipitation, mainly to the northern regions of Spain. Snow is forecasted in the mountains above 1,500-1,600 meters, while the rest of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands are unlikely to see significant precipitation. The temperature contrast between the north and the south will be noticeable, with cooler temperatures in the northern regions and warmer conditions in the southeast of the country due to southerly winds.
On Wednesday, showers will persist in the northern regions, especially along the Galician coast and inland areas of the Cantabrian communities, with thunderstorms expected in mountainous regions in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to decrease, particularly in the Mediterranean region. By Thursday, a new front will bring rain and showers to the northern regions, with the possibility of snow above 1,500 meters in mountainous areas. The rest of the country will experience stable weather conditions, with temperatures remaining cool in the west and warmer in the southeast.
As the week progresses, a gradual warming trend is expected from Friday onwards, gradually bringing temperatures back to seasonal norms. By Sunday, temperatures will rise to above 20°C across most of the country, reaching 25°C in the south and the Balearic Islands. Rainfall will be limited to the northern regions, with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms in mountainous areas. In the Canary Islands, strong trade winds will bring unsettled maritime conditions, with light rain in the mountainous northern regions.
